You think you have transportation problems
November 3rd, 2008 John Krol Posted in India’s Economy No Comments » Edit |
WHO’S DRIVING THIS TRAIN? 
Blind spot Pakistani Sunni devotees return to their homes on a packed train after attending annual religious congregation in Multan yesterday. Thousands of devotees from all over the country took part in three-day congregation which concluded in Multan yesterday.
China, India feeling impact of global crisis
November 1st, 2008 John Krol Posted in China’s Economy, India’s Economy, News Financial Intelligence No Comments » Edit |
China, India feeling impact of global crisis
‘This will have a huge impact,’
Chinese banking executive says
One World follow the Sun
|
|
|||||
|
DIC experiments with homeowner rescue plan
With the FDIC at the helm of IndyMac, which was seized after it became one of the country’s largest bank failures, regulators are attempting to create a model for reworking mortgages and rescuing homeowners. |
LONDON - Two powerhouse emerging market countries in Asia felt the sting of the global financial crisis on Saturday as India cut its main short-term lending rate and China said it was bracing for a slowdown.
In Europe, Britain’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who has played a big role in combating the crisis, appealed to oil-rich Gulf states to pour money into stabilizing the world financial system and helping afflicted countries.
Other countries took steps to shore up their own economies. Russia moved 170 billion rubles ($6.4 billion) from a national fund to a state bank on Saturday as part of Moscow’s $200 billion markets and economy rescue plan.
And German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged German banks to tap a 500 billion euro ($638.9 billion) government rescue package. She and Brown will meet in London Thursday.
The developments in the worst financial crisis in eight decades followed signs in the past week that world markets were stabilizing, with interbank rates falling and U.S. stocks posting their best week in 34 years.
But in Shanghai, a senior Bank of China executive told a financial conference the impact of the crisis on China has started to appear.
China has seen a sharp slowdown in industrial profit growth and fiscal income, Executive Vice President Zhu Min told a financial conference. The global economy will likely enter recession next year with the United States, Europe and Japan posting negative growth, he said.
“That will have a huge impact on China,” he said.
Zhu also said currency volatility was expected to add further pressure on China’s banks, which have enjoyed robust profits for years as the country boomed. Earnings growth is now slowing as the economy cools from the impact of the crisis.
“The uncertainties in the world’s currency markets have exposed the Chinese banking sector to higher foreign asset risk,” Zhu said.
In India — like China, a magnet for foreign investment in recent years as their economies roared — the central bank cut its main lending rate for the second time in as many weeks to ease a cash squeeze and spur economic growth.
Analysts said the surprise move showed Indian concern that strains on its economy were quickly becoming more severe.
“These actions were necessary (and had) to be taken on the liquidity front…the situation was getting worse,” said Vikas Agarwal, strategist at JP Morgan.
The central bank cut its main short-term lending rate by 50 basis points to 7.5 percent and banks’ cash reserve requirements by 100 basis points to 5.5 percent.
“The global financial turmoil has had knock-on effects on our financial markets; this has reinforced the importance of focusing on preserving financial stability,” the bank said.
Policymakers around the world have slashed interest rates in recent weeks and injected huge amounts into their banking systems to try to combat the spillover effects of the global crisis, which is causing credit markets to freeze up and threatens to plunge the world economy into recession.
Britain’s Brown, speaking as he set out to visit the Gulf, said Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing Gulf states, could contribute funds to the International Monetary Fund or other entities to ease the crisis.
“Their interest is in a stable energy price, not in the massive volatility we have seen where oil prices have shot up and then come down again. Their interest too is in a well-functioning global economy,” Brown told Sky News.
His tour precedes a global summit in Washington on Nov. 15 which will seek to reform the international financial system.
The business outlook weakened in the United States, where the question of whether Republican candidate John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama would handle the economic crisis best has dominated debate before Tuesday’s presidential election.
A Commerce Department report on Friday showed consumers cut monthly spending for the first time in two years in September, evidently bracing for hard times as jobs continue to disappear and credit conditions tighten.
As another week ended in the crisis, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates and British banking giant Barclays said it was raising $12 billion in capital.
But there were signs that the moves taken by central banks and others to remove blockages in the credit system were working to some extent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday as investors picked up bargains following recent heavy losses. European shares reversed losses and followed Wall Street higher.
The Bank of Japan rate slash followed a cut by the Federal Reserve Wednesday. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to do the same next week. 
The Third World bombings India
October 30th, 2008 John Krol Posted in India’s Economy Comments Off Edit |
2008 Assam bombings
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
2008 Assam serial blasts
Location Assam, India
Date October 30, 2008
Attack type Multiple bombs
Weapon(s) RDX, TNT and PETN[1]
Deaths 81[2]
Injured 470[3][4]
Perpetrator(s) United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
[hide]
v • d • e
Terrorism in India since 2001
Indian Parliament attack – Srinagar – Mumbai 2003 – Ayodhya – Delhi 2005 – Varanasi – Jama Masjid – Mumbai 2006 – Malegaon – Samjhauta Express – Mecca Masjid – Hyderabad – Uttar Pradesh – Jaipur – Bangalore – Ahmedabad – 1st Delhi 2008 – 2nd Delhi 2008 – Western India – Agartala – Imphal – Assam
The 2008 Assam bombings occurred on October 30, 2008, before noon in markets in Guwahati city and the surrounding area of western Assam. Reports indicated as many as eighteen bombs went off,[5] causing at least 81 deaths and 470 injuries.[3]
Contents
[hide]
* 1 Background
* 2 Bomb attacks
o 2.1 Immediate consequences
o 2.2 Follow up
o 2.3 Consequences
* 3 Investigation
* 4 Perpetrators
* 5 Reactions
o 5.1 Central reactions
o 5.2 Pan-Indian reactions
o 5.3 International reactions
* 6 References
[edit] Background
[edit] Bomb attacks
Union Minister Shakeel Ahmed confirmed 10 blasts took place, however, reports did indicate the number could have been as high as eighteen. The blasts ripped apart Guwahati, Barpeta, Bongaigaon and Kokrajhar.
The explosions in Guwahati ripped through Pan Bazar, Fancy Bazar and Ganeshguri, which were crowded with shoppers and office goers. Three blasts were also Kokrajhar, with another possible grenade explosion; two in Bongaigaon and one in Barpeta. Indian media outlets pointed out that the blasts took place just after the Diwali holidays making the blasts even more unexpected and adding to a toll count. The bomb at Ganeshguri was planted in a car and took place about 100 meters from Chief Minister of Assam Tarun Gogoi’s official residence.[6]
In Guwahati, 41 people were killed; in Kokrajhar, 21; and in Barpeta, 15.[7] On November 2, four more succumbed to their injuries here. Three died at Gauhati Medical College Hospital, while another died at the Basistha Army Hospital. Twentry others were also in a critical condition.[2]
Police officials added that huge amounts of explosives like RDX or other plastic explosives, like C4, have been used as a fire erupted immediately following the blasts. Timers were also speculated to have been used to execute the blasts, which were seen with timing almost to perfection as the blasts took place within a short span of 15 minutes. It was further speculated, after investigations were initiated, that motor bikes may have been used. However, Assam police chief RN Mathur also said most of the bombs were “planted in cars.”[8]
Wikinews has related news:
Synchronised bombings strike Indian state of Assam
In addition to the immediate casualty toll seven more people succumbed to their injuries overnight.[9]
[edit] Immediate consequences
* Immediately following the attack the Government of Assam issued a high alert and called out paramilitary forces to control a potentially volatile situation.[10] Security was also increased in the Jalpaiguri district following the blasts. The police and Sima Suraksha Bal (BSF) were said to be keeping a joint vigilance along the Bangladesh border. The superintendent of police, Jalpaiguri, Manoj Varma, said that police had been instructed to keep a round the clock vigilance over important public places in the district.[11]
* Following the blasts, angry crowds clashed with police in some areas of Guwahati. Some people were injured in the clash and, at one point, police had to fire in the air to disperse an angry mob. It was also reported on the television media that mobs were hampering efforts by police and the fire brigade to clean up after the blasts. The mobs were seen attacking police and fire equipment. A curfew had been imposed in Guwahati and some other cities of Assam following the serial bomb blasts.[6]
* It was also reported that members of the Assamese diaspora trying to contact relatives following the blasts faced jammed telephone networks, making it impossible to get information of the region. This was probable to be a problem within the area as well.[12]
* Guwahati Medical College hospital where the victims are being treated has reported acute shortage of blood. The Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarmah has urged the people to donate blood. Asom Gana Parishad has directed the party cadres to donate blood. Several NGOs and volunteers of social organisations have come forward to donate blood and provide help to family members of the injured and those who have lost their lives.[13]
* In response to the Tarun Gogoi government’s alleged failure to protect Assam, a motley crowd attempted to storm into the state secretariat with two charred bodies from the blasts as hundreds more took to the streets in protest. The mob, shouting slogans like “Tarun Gogoi murdabad,” was stopped at the gates of the seat of government by the security staff. They also demanded that “Gogoi come out and see what your failure to protect the people has caused. It has killed innocent people.”[14]
[edit] Follow up
On the same day a convoy of police cars in Assam came under fire from rebels resulting in seven police and three civilian casualties.
[edit] Consequences
A spontaneous bandhs, total shut down, was observed the next day at Kokrajhar on a call given by the VHP, the BJP, and the Bajrang Dal,[15] while schools and educational institutions also remained closed in Guwahati. Only a few shops in the captial were opened and vehicular traffic was thin with most people choosing to stay indoors. BJP leader L. K. Advani, who arrived in Assam on the same morning, visited the blast site near the Deputy Commissioner’s office, where he also faced a group of angry lawyers who shouted slogans saying “Advani go back.” He also visited the Guwahati Medical College Hospital and met the injured. The Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil, who was arrived later in the day, visited Kokrajhar and Barpeta. He also held a high-level meeting at the Lokopriyo Gopinath Bordoloi International Airport in the evening. Attendance in commercial areas where offices are located was thin, and in many areas shops and business establishments, particularly those in and around the blast sites remained closed. Few public transport were seen plying on the roads in the morning. The opposition Asom Gana Parishad observed a Black Day with all its leaders and cadres sporting black badges. Lawyers from both Gauhati High Court and the Sessions Court in Guwahati abstained from work and held protests outside the court premises.[16]
A curfew was again clamped on the worst-hit Ganeshguri in the afternoon, after the initial curfew was relaxed the previous evening, as an angry mob braved tight security in the presence of the city SS and went on a rampage. The police then resorted to firing blanks, injuring at least five people in the ensuing melee. The leader of the opposition and former Deputy Prime Minister Advani visited the spot just minutes before the disturbance.[17]
On November 1 the prime minister was set to visit his home constitency to take the stock of the situation after the blasts. He would meet the Assam Governor Shiv Charan Mathur and Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, as well as visit the Guwahati Medical College hospital to see the injured in the blasts.[18]
[edit] Investigation
The Union home secretary, Madhukar Gupta, said a team of NSG experts from New Delhi also visited the blast sites at Ganeshguri, the deputy commissioner’s office and Fancy Bazaar.[16] When asked about the nature of the explosives, he said forensic experts were already examining the blasts sites. In regards to more paramilitary forces, saying there were already enough forces already deployed, he added: “We will retain them for some more time and probably not deploy them on poll duties (in six states).” A high-level team comprising of senior Home Ministry officials also visited Assam to make an on-the-spot assessment of the situation arising out blasts.[19]
Police said they had picked up about a dozen suspects for interrogation within the first 24 hours. An official in the police department said: “We are making good headway in our investigations and should be able to zero in on the people or groups involved in the serial bombings.”[9] Two persons from Nagaon district were arrested in connection with the attacks. Asib Mohammed Nizami and Zulfikar Ali were the owners of two vehicles in which the bombs were planted in the Ganeshguri area of Guwahati and Bongaigaon.[18]
On November 1, the army told the Prime Minister that it had previously intercepted a message from Calcutta one week before the incident that said: “Attack Guwahati.” The army told the PM that had known about the impending terror strikes in the western Assam towns for six weeks and had tried to prevent them. Lt. Gen. B.S. Jaswal, of the GOC 4 Corps, told the PM the army had received “non-specific” information on September 17 about possible strikes in Guwahati, Barpeta Road and Kokrajhar. CM Gogoi, who heads Assam’s unified command that includes the army, corroborated the message with Singh. In admitting such knowledge he added that the government did not anticipate the scale of the blasts. The government then also formed a special team, headed by the inspector-general of police (special task force), R. Chandranathan, to probe the blasts and issue a report within 30 days.[20]
[edit] Perpetrators
Union Minister Shakil Ahmed hinted that communal riots in Assam for the preceding several days could be inter-linked to the attacks. He said that the politics of hate was a plausible reason behind the attacks.[10]
Though the Assam government said it was too early to reach a conclusion on the perpetrators, Assam’s Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said: “It is very early to make a conclusion but ULFA has a history of triggering serial blasts.”[21] To corroborate this speculation the intelligence officials said the separatist ULFA was responsible for the blasts. This follows most fighters in one of the ULFA’s elite strike battalion having previously announced a ceasefire with the government, with the security services have used the lull to attack and killed many other ULFA fighters in the weeks preceding. A faction that did not agree to the ceasefire was said to be responsible for the blasts. Assam police chief R N Mathur added that “So the Ulfa is striking back in a massive way by taking on soft targets. No other group can trigger so many blasts in so many places in such a coordinated fashion.”[8][22]
[edit] Reactions
[edit] Central reactions
Leader of the opposition, L. K. Advani, used the blasts to lambaste the ruling UPA-led government. He said: “I believe that these blasts are symbolic of the sense of insecurity in the country. This also proves the total failure of the government in combating terrorism,” adding that it was likely that illegal Bangladeshi migrants in Assam, with an increasing influx of such immigrants, could be involved in the blasts.[23]
The next day he came out again blaming illegal infiltration from Bangladesh as the main reason for the breeding of terrorism in Assam saying “I blame the state and the central government for the blasts in Assam.” He continued to question the PM, “I ask the prime minister, who is elected from Assam, what his government has done after the Supreme Court’s landmark judgment on the IMDT (Illegal Migrants Determination by Tribunals) Act indicting the Government of India for having colluded with external aggression. The government only incorporated all those provisions in the struck down IMDT in the Foreigners Act, which the Supreme Court declared as unconstitutional.” He also visited blast sites and met injured victims at the hospitals.[24]
Union Minister of State for Home, Shriprakash Jaiswal, also condemned the blasts and added: “The blasts will have no impact on the forthcoming Assembly elections in Mizoram. The Home Ministry has asked for a report on the serial blasts from the Assam government.” He claimed that due to the sincere efforts of the ruling central coalition government, incidents of terror in the northeastern sister states had gone down by as much as 50 per cent in the last four years.
The prime minister also strongly condemning the blasts and added that his government would take all possible steps to bring the perpetrators of the attack to justice.[18] Along with the UPA chairperson, Sonia Gandhi, were set to visit Assam on November 1. The day before Union Home Minister, Shivraj Patil, also arrived in Assam and visited blast sites in Kokrajhar and Guwahati, as well as holding a security meeting with the chief minister, and senior police and administrative officials. He said: “We shall nab the culprits involved in the blasts. Investigations are on and we should be able to come out with something concrete.”[15]
[edit] Pan-Indian reactions
The Jharkhand government also came out strongly condemning the serial blasts, while having summoned a cabinet meeting in Ranchi for the next day to discuss the security situation in his region. Deputy Chief Minister, Sudhir Mahto, described the act as one of “cowardice” and said the state machinery had been alerted in Jharkhand following the incident. He added that he expressed confidence that the UPA government at the centre would initiate all necessary steps to rein in anti-national elements who are bent upon weakening the prevailing peace and tranquility, while appealing to the central government to provide adequate compensation to the family members of the victims. While he also denied the fact that the militant activities were on the rise in the country at large during the rule of the UPA government, he expressed concern over the recent revelation that Hindu militants’ were involved in the Malegaon incident. He said this by alluding to the fact that vested interests were keen on dividing the country by creating panic.[25] Vigilance was also stepped up along the West Bengal border with Assam following the blasts. Additional security forces were rushed to assist in combing operations to track down those responsible for the blasts attempting to flee from Assam through the border with north Bengal. State’s Home Secretary, Ashok Mohan Chakavarty, said an alert had been sounded across West Bengal, with security tightened in the captail city. Further security arrangements were under review, particularly in the border districts where check-posts have been set up. A senior police official in West Bengal said: “A special alert has been sounded in the region. Vehicles passing through the border with Assam are being checked.” He added that surveillance had also been considerably tightened at West Bengal’s international borders with Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan.[26]
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Mayawati, also strongly condemned the serial blasts, while demanding that the Prime Minister take effective measures to ensure that such incidents are not repeated.[27]
[edit] International reactions
U.N Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who was in India at the time of the attack, issued a statement via a spokesman expressing his deep sorrow and sympathy to the government and people of India for the loss of life and destruction caused by the attacks. He also strongly condemns this act of terrorism in its targeting of civilians, declaring that there can be absolutely no justification for such indiscriminate violence.[28]
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev resolutely condemned the deadly blasts dubbing them as an “inhuman and monstrous” crime which cannot have any justification. In a message to Indian President Pratibha Patil and Prime Minister Singh, he expressed his indignation at the “barbarous” act and called for strict punishment for those responsible. He said: “I learnt with deep indignation about the series of coordinated terrorist acts in Assam, which led to the deaths of scores of innocent people. Such inhuman and monstrous in cruelty crime have no justification. Terrorists guilty of committing this barbarous act must be severely punished.” The Russian Foreign Ministry also said: “The Foreign Ministry of Russia resolutely condemns the acts of terrorists. They have no and cannot have any justification. The criminals must be severely punished for their acts.”[29]
Bangladesh also strongly condemned the attack. Foreign adviser Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury term the attack an act of “cowardly terrorism.” Adding: “We strongly condemn the bomb blast in the North Eastern India that led to so many deaths and injuries. It is a cowardly act of terrorism. Violence cannot be a tool for achievement of political objectives.”[30]
[edit] References
1. ^ “Car bombs were used in Guwahati blast” (in English), Times of India (Novemeber 1, 2008). Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
2. ^ a b “Assam blast toll rises to 81″. www.ptinews.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-03.
3. ^ a b “Assam blasts toll rises to 77, curfew in Ganeshguri” (in English), Times of India (October 31, 2008). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
4. ^ “Serial blasts in Assam, 20 dead, 100 injured” (in English). Times of India (October 30, 2008). Retrieved on 2008-10-30.
5. ^ “At least 50 killed and over 200 injured in 18 blasts”, APP (2008-10-30).
6. ^ a b “Curfew imposed in Guwahati following blasts”, IBN Live (Oct 30, 2008). Retrieved on 2008-10-30.
7. ^ “One arrested for Assam serial blasts-India-The Times of India”. Timesofindia.indiatimes.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
8. ^ a b “Bomb explosions in India kill 24 peolpe(sic)”, KBC (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-30.
9. ^ a b “Toll in Assam blasts rises to 71, dozen suspects held”. New Kerala (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
10. ^ a b “11 blasts in 15 minutes rip Assam, 26 killed”, Merinews (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-30.
11. ^ “Jalpaiguri police step up vigilance after Assam blasts”. The Statesman (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
12. ^ “Panic grips Assamese in Delhi after Assam serial blasts”, Thaindian (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
13. ^ “Assam struggles to keep blood supply going”, IBN Live (Oct 30, 2008). Retrieved on 2008-10-30.
14. ^ “Angry mob tries to storm state secretariat in Assam”. The Times of India (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
15. ^ a b “Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi to visit Assam- Hindustan Times”. Hindustantimes.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
16. ^ a b “Total shut down in blast-hit Kokrajhar”. Ptinews.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
17. ^ “Blast-ravaged Assam observes spontaneous bandhs INDIA NEWS MyNews.in:”. Mynews.in. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
18. ^ a b c “Manmohan Singh to visit blast affected areas of Assam”. Thaindian.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
19. ^ “Central team to visit blast sites in Assam -India-The Times of India”. Timesofindia.indiatimes.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
20. ^ http://www.telegraphindia.com/1081102/jsp/frontpage/story_10051917.jsp
21. ^ “ULFA may be behind serial blasts, Assam Minister”. Press Trust of India (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
22. ^ News X. October 30, 2008. 13:30
23. ^ “Blasts symbolic of insecurity in country: Advani”, IndianExpress (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
24. ^ “Bangladesh migrants breeding terrorism in Assam: Advani”. Thaindian.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
25. ^ “Jharkhand condemns Assam blasts, to review security”. The Hindi (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
26. ^ “Alert in West Bengal”. The Hindu (2008-10-31). Retrieved on 2008-10-31.
27. ^ “‘Too early to trace Assam blast terrorists’ - Express India”. Expressindia.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
28. ^ “Ban condemns multiple terrorist attacks in north-east India”, UN (2008-10-30). Retrieved on 2008-10-30.
29. ^ “News From Sahara Samay:: Russia condemns “inhuman and monstrous” attack in Assam”. Saharasamay.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
30. ^ “Bangladesh condemns Assam blasts :: Bangladesh :: bdnews24.com ::”. Bdnews24.com. Retrieved on 2008-11-01.
Retrieved from “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Assam_bombings”
Preparing for Peak Oil
October 21st, 2008 John Krol Posted in China’s Economy, Global Energy 2032, India’s Economy No Comments » Edit |
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is an independent, UK-registered educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world’s oil-depletion problem.
Preparing for Peak Oil: Local Authorities and the Energy Crisis - a new report from ODAC
ODAC has prepared a new report aimed specifically at local government in the UK called Preparing for Peak Oil: Local Authorities and the Energy Crisis (PDF, 2647 Kb). Copies of the report can be ordered, free of charge, from ODAC for either members of local government, or Councillors. e-mail: info@odac-info.org (please give details of your role) or telephone: +44 (0)20 8144 8359.
From the report:
“Global oil production is approaching a peak, followed by a permanent decline. It will radically change the way our societies are run: our transport systems, how we produce food, where we work and live.
There are a great many things that councils must do, and policies that need to be changed, if we are to have any chance of mitigating the economic effects of peak oil. On the plus side, some of these initiatives already exist (recycling, road pricing, etc.) but these efforts need to be significantly expanded, and there remain entire areas of policy that have yet to be addressed… “
To sign-up to receive our weekly newsletter, a digest of the peak oil news, via e-mail, please register as a user. Previous issues can be viewed here.
Want to help?
Join us! Become a member of the ODAC Newsgathering Network. Can you regularly commit to checking a news source for stories related to peak oil, energy depletion, their implications and reponses to the issues? If you are checking either a daily or weekly news source and would have time to add articles to our database, please contact us for more details.
Please contact us with any questions or comments.
News Articles
India targeting China’s oil supplies
October 20th, 2008 John Krol Posted in China’s Economy, Global Energy 2032, India’s Economy No Comments » Edit |
India targeting China’s oil supplies
One World
Military planners in India are eyeing a crucial junction of the world which serves as the conduit for 80 per cent of China’s imported oil.
The Strait of Malacca, where the Indian Ocean joins the Pacific, is seen as China’s Achilles’ heel. These shipping lanes, vital for Beijing’s energy supplies, could be the setting for any future confrontation between India and China.
Analysis: India moves closer to US to balance China’s rise
Analysis: US to court India to balance China
Analysis: European military budgets still far surpass China and India
India ‘must not show weakness to China’
The two giant powers are long-standing rivals who share a disputed 2,100-mile border and are waging a diplomatic struggle for influence in Asia. They fought a border war in 1962, which ended in victory for China and left Beijing in control of 16,500 square miles of territory claimed by India.
Both countries are increasing their defence budgets, with India’s military spending rising by an average of 18 per cent in each of the past three years and now exceeding £15 billion.
If these tensions were ever to boil over into war, India would probably exploit a crucial advantage. Its navy, which eventually plans to deploy three aircraft carriers and two nuclear-powered attack submarines, would probably seek to close the Strait of Malacca to Chinese shipping through an increased presence. By cutting off the supply of oil, this could cripple China and prove the decisive move in any conflict.
“The most likely flashpoint would be along the border, but ultimately the decision in any war would be on the ocean,” said Sheru Thapliyal, a retired Indian general in New Delhi who once commanded a division on the frontier with China.
“The Indian Ocean is where we could use our advantage to the maximum. If you want to choke China, the only way you can choke China is by using naval power.”
With China’s key vulnerability in mind, India has constructed a naval base within striking distance of the Strait of Malacca at Port Blair on the Andaman Islands. China has countered by installing military facilities of its own, complete with electronic monitoring and eavesdropping devices, on the nearby Coco Islands. These specks of land belong to Burma, a long-standing ally of China.
Beijing is now taking other steps to address what President Hu Jintao has called the country’s “Malacca dilemma”. With hugely ambitious infrastructure projects, China hopes to bypass the Strait of Malacca and eventually end its dependence on this vulnerable waterway for energy supplies.
On India’s western flank, China is helping to build a new port in the Pakistani town of Gwadar. Thrust together by their shared rivalry with India, Pakistan and China are old allies.
Gwadar could eventually provide a base for Chinese warships. Or it may be used as the starting point for a pipeline travelling through Pakistan and carrying oil and gas into China itself. If so, Beijing could import energy from the Middle East using this route, bypassing the Strait of Malacca.
The same rationale may explain China’s actions on India’s eastern flank. A new port and pipeline terminal are being constructed at Kyauk Phyu on Burma’s island of Ramree. This will be the starting point for a 900-mile pipeline, able to carry oil directly to Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province in southern China.
“They know that we could attempt to choke them completely and that’s why they want these ports,” said Vijay Kapoor, a retired general in New Delhi and former commandant of the Indian Army War College. “Their aim in all of this is to prevent us from being able to choke them.”
China’s moves are being closely watched in India, where the military establishment fears that Beijing’s plans in Pakistan and Burma amount to a deliberate strategy of “encirclement”. If China’s navy acquires permanent bases in the Indian Ocean, tension will grow.
But Indian diplomats tend to believe these fears are exaggerated. They believe that China is motivated by nothing more than securing its economic boom and taking normal precautions against unforeseeable events.
)
India China Oil
October 19th, 2008 John Krol Posted in China’s Economy, Global Energy 2032, India’s Economy 3 Comments » Edit |
The Axis of Oil
[India and China]
by Jehangir Pocha
China and India are locked in an increasingly aggressive wrangle with the United States over the world’s most critical economic commodity: oil. More than any other issue, this tussle will shape the economic, environmental and geopolitical future of these three countries, and the world.
Ensuring a steady flow of cheap oil has always been one of the central goals of U.S. foreign and economic policy, and Washington’s preeminent position in the world is based in large measure on its ability to do this. But China and India are increasingly competing with the United
States to secure oil exploration rights in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Latin America.
India has invested more than $3 billion in global exploration ventures and has said it will continue to spend $3 billion a year on more acquisitions. China, which has already invested about $15 billion in foreign oil fields, is expected to spend lo times more over the next decade.
The motive, says Zheng Hongfei, an energy researcher at the Beijing Institute of Technology, is that “there is just not enough oil in the world” to cover China’s and India’s growing energy needs.
By 2010 India will have 36 times more cars than it did in 1990. China will have 90 times more, and by 2030 it will have more cars than the United States, according to the Energy Research Institute of Beijing.
More than 4.5 million new vehicles are expected to hit Chinese roads this year alone, a far cry from the time when families saved for months to buy a Flying Pigeon bicycle. The country is now the world’s largest oil importer after the United States, guzzling about 6.5 million barrels of oil a day; this figure will double by 2020, says Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
India, the world’s second-fastest growing economy after China, now consumes about 2.2 million barrels a day-about the same as South Korea-and this is expected to rise to 5.3 million barrels a day by 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
With global oil production barely 1 million barrels over the global consumption rate of 81 million barrels a day, the surge in demand from China and India could eventually lead global demand to outstrip supply, causing fuel prices to shoot up beyond their recent highs of around $56 a barrel, says Roach.
The impact of this on the global economy, particularly in developing countries that import most of their fuel, would be severe. The International Energy Agency says that for every $1 increase in oil price, the global economy loses $25 billion.
Anxiety over this is already throwing the nervous oil market into further disequilibrium. In September, Michael Rothman, a senior energy analyst at Merrill Lynch, said rising oil prices were not so much a result of the Iraq war or political instability in Venezuela and Sudan, but of extensive “hoarding” by China.
According to Rothman’s analysis, China and India are roiling oil markets by creating oil reserves, which are designed to provide the minimum cache the country needs to ride out a crisis, along the lines of the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
With both countries flush with foreign exchange reserves that are threatening to infect their economies with inflation, creating an oil stock seems a sensible solution. But critics say Beijing’s and New Delhi’s timing is unfortunate, coming just as the global economy seemed to be recovering and the United States was questioning the value of its own reserve.
At 175 million barrels and 25 million barrels respectively, China’s and India’s estimated oil reserves are just a small fraction of the 700 million barrels held by the United States in its SPR.
China and India, which are both nuclear states, are also taking advantage of the United States’ strained ties with Iran, Vietnam and Myanmar by extending these countries military and political support in exchange for energy supplies. And a Washington preoccupied with Iraq, the war on terror and nuclear crises in Iran and North Korea has been unable to checkmate either country as successfully as it did earlier.
For example, U.S. nervousness over China’s intentions in Latin America had led it to use its leverage with Panama to impede China’s access to the all-important canal connecting the Pacific and Atlantic. But in December, Beijing signed a landmark deal with Venezuela and its neighbor Colombia, under whose terms a pipeline would be constructed linking Venezuelan oil fields to ports along Colombia’s Pacific coastline.
This will allow Venezuelan oil to bypass the Panama Canal and create a new and direct route to China.
There are also signs that China is warming to the idea of a Russia-China-India axis, which, in cooperation with Iran, would turn the oil-rich Central Asian region into their domain. This proposal would put in place extensive military agreements and pipeline networks. Originally put forward by Russia’s Asia-centric ex-Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, the proposal seems to be gaining ground with all four nations. China and India have already signed multibillion-dollar gas and energy deals with Russia, which is the largest arms supplier to both countries, and with ex-Soviet Central Asian republics such as Kazakhstan.
What worries Western powers most are China’s and India’s growing ties with Iran, a country Washington is trying to isolate. Both Beijing and New Delhi have recently signed 25-year gas and oil deals with Iran that are collectively valued at between $150 and $200 billion, and both countries are also deepening their military cooperation with Tehran. Iran and India conducted their first-ever joint naval exercises last September, and India has agreed to modernize Iran’s aging Russian-built Kilo-class submarines and MiG fighters.
Both China and India have also tried to thwart Western attempts to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, which has largely been built with Russian assistance. In a departure from China’s traditional neutrality on international issues that do not involve its own interests, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing flew to Tehran last November when the United States threatened to haul Iran before the U.N. Security Council and announced that China would oppose any such effort. And in January, the State Department imposed penalties against some of China’s largest weapons manufacturers for their support of Iran’s ballistic missile program.
The potential volatility from such aggressive oil politics could bring China and India into conflict with Western, Japanese and other regional interests, says Robert Karniol, the Asia-Pacific editor of Jane’s Defence Weekly.
“Even if China’s oil consumption doubles by 2020, it will still only be half that of the U.S.” says Zheng, the energy researcher at Beijing Institute of Technology.
Yet the sheer size of the Asian juggernauts and the prospect that they might indiscriminately swallow global resources scare economic planners.
State-owned Indian and Chinese oil companies are investing heavily in local energy fields, such as the 200,000-square-mile Ordos Basin that stretches across the provinces of Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia in northwestern China, and is reported to have oil reserves of up to 6o billion barrels.
To defray the substantial costs of exploration, both China and India are privatizing state-owned oil companies, and using the billions raised to restructure and modernize their operations. Other public sector oil units are also undergoing massive recapitalization and restructuring, including the retrenchment of thousands of workers.
Sharon Hurst, a Beijing-based executive with ConocoPhillips, the largest refiner in the United States, says, “Western investment is helping Chinese oil companies morph into world-class players.”
Significantly, both nations are also opening up their domestic oil industries-previously considered strategic and therefore off limits to foreign and private investors. Companies such as ExxonMobil, which owns a 19 percent stake in China’s giant Sinopec company, are being wooed not just for their capital but also for their refining and marketing capabilities. For example, ExxonMobil is helping Sinopec establish more than 500 gas stations across the country and build at least two refineries in southern China.
Optimists-mostly people from the corporate world such as Warren Buffet-say such common opportunity will lead to greater cooperation rather than competition between the West and China and India. But pessimists-mostly people from the security establishment-fear that China and India, two energy-hungry giants seeking access to limited world resources, will inevitably clash with the West. U