ETF

November 09, 2008 at 1:00 pm by Tom Lydon

Exchange Traded Funds In 2009 When it comes to the stock market and exchange traded funds (ETFs), is the glass half empty or half full?

Janice Revell for CNN Money asked big money brains for their take on the economy and the stock market for the coming year, and to rate their optimism from 1-10, with 1 being “apocalyptic” and ten as “no worries.” The economists came out empty while the market researchers were optimistic.

Economists such as Jared Bernstein and Mark Zandi for Moody’s were the lower scores at 3, claiming that, among other factors, a flat GDP, recession-like growth rates, and peaked unemployment by the end of 2008, perhaps around 8%, would cause a long pause for the economy at large.

Most economists do not expect a turnaround until 2010 or late 2009, because of tighter policy response, consumers trying to cut their debt and finding stability within the housing market, with home prices finally taking root.

The market prognosticators have their glasses half full as the potential and growth prospects for the stock market present themselves during this time period. Ed Yardeni believes in the world governments being effective and having their way, with an S&P rebound by mid-09.

Both Jerry Grantham and Barry Ritholz see the opportunity with the S&P 500, as it could drop below 900-1000, giving opportunity. Brian Wesbury is the most positive of all, giving a 9 and going the contrarian route, with fortunes to be made as everyone goes the opposite direction.

Where do you stand? Tell us in the comments!

Current Affairs
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Obama’s Sector To-Do List May Impact ETFs

November 09, 2008 at 1:00 am by Tom Lydon

Obama and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)President-elect Barack Obama has his work cut out for him as he enters office with the weight of financial trauma, tumbling stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs) and a gaping deficit.

No question: there’s a lot to do. But some things are going to take priority over others.

Very few health care analysts expect the new president to act upon health care issues any time soon. The Democrats are expected to abandon the Bush administration’s positions on Medicare and other issues. This could give Medicare the power to negotiate directly with pharmaceutical companies, reports Reed Abelson for The New York Times.

  • Vanguard Heath Care (VHT), down 25.9% year-to-date

Health Care ETF

Like health care, the energy area may see delays as other pressing financial woes need to be dealt with first. With Obama’s leadership, the energy industry faces a shift with the emphasis on conservation and renewable power. But bigger issues, such as global warming, could once again stew on the back burner.

High energy costs and concerns about global warming have heightened the sense of urgency for a broad policy that tackles both the nation’s oil use and its energy-related carbon emissions, though. Expansion of offshore drilling may have shifted in Obama’s eyes as a possibility instead of remaining adamantly opposed, reports Jad Mouawad for The New York Times.

  • Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), down 39.5% year-to-date

Energy ETFs

Obama has endorsed the industry’s call for raising the number of H-1B temporary work visas, which are available now to only 65,000 skilled foreign engineers each year, all of which are claimed within minutes. The major challenge right now is public sentiment that foreigners are taking American’s jobs at a time when unemployment is rising rapidly, reports Matt Richtel for The New York Times.

Meanwhile, the tech industry will call upon the new president for things such as net neutrality, policies to spread high speed Internet access, and step up broadband penetration to higher standards. They hope he will be committed to his stated support of certain issues affecting their industry.

  • First Trust NASDAQ 100 Technology Sector (QTEC), down 43.8% year-to-date

Technology ETF

Asset Class ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs, Sector ETFs
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Turmoil Could Spawn Opportunity In High-Grade Bond ETFs

November 08, 2008 at 1:00 pm by Max Chen

sky building imageCurrent market conditions may ultimately translate into a brighter future for corporate bond and exchange traded funds (ETFs).

The high-grade bonds are being priced with a highly pessimistic view of the future. Long-term maturity corporate bonds could reward dauntless investors with large spreads producing high yields, reports Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives.

High-paying bonds may be tantalizing with their near double-digit yields. Nevertheless, these bonds may suffer from risks with deteriorating economies, rising inflation, widening spreads, and the chance of defaults.

If you are pondering the possibility of high-grade debt, high-grade 10-year maturities are being recommended for their liquidity and extensive offerings.

High-grade bond funds may yield less than individual bonds. The tradeoff for a lower-yielding fund would be a diversified exposure, liquidity, real market values, and much more information covering credit.

The funds for high-grade bonds do not provide exclusive exposure to high-grade corporate markets and historical year-to-date performances may not prove to be a useful guideline for selecting a fund.

The safer bet for the risk-averse is a short-term investment. But for those who are comfortable with more risk could consider looking into long maturities if they feel that they’re right for them.

A sample of some corporate bond ETFs:

  • iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond (LQD): down 9.7% year-to-date; yield 6.5%

LQD performance chart

  • iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bondd (HYG): down 23.8% year-to-date; yield 11.1%

High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF

Bond ETFs, Current Affairs, ETF Trends in the Press

Off shore Investing

Off shore Investing

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download it now and take action

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Since almost 80% of all equity mutual funds fail to perform as well as the stock market, shifting your under performing mutual funds to market performing Exchange Traded Funds (commonly known as ETFs or index funds) could make a significant long term impact in helping you to retire early. And since ETFs also have lower fees and share the diversity of an index, investing in index funds can provide that same comfort level as our mutual funds investments, except you can have a better performing investment plan.

With all the benefits we have covered so far, the only thing we don’t know about investing in ETFs is which ETF to invest in. Fortunately, investing in ETFs is easy as investing in mutual funds. The only consideration you need to make is how to begin.

Considerations for choosing the right ETF

Popular investors like Warren Buffet have previously suggested to “put [your money] in a low-cost index fund that tracks the S+P 500 index, and get back to work…” And I agree that using ETFs should be a cornerstone of your portfolio, but blatantly selecting only the S+P 500 index may not necessarily be the best course of action.

Here are other considerations to help you choose what’s important to you:

The economy: Buffett made this comment because for the last century, the best performing returns have come from the stock market. Why? Stock prices are (usually) reflective of a company’s growth. The more an individual company grows, the better the stock prices perform. And if more companies do well, the more the economy grows as a whole. So the future growth of the US economy is vital for your investments to grow. However if the economy doesn’t grow, your ETF won’t go!

I am not suggesting you become a professional prognosticator to determine the future growth of the economy, but by simply paying attention to how the economy is doing will be sufficient. Is it growing, slowing or contracting? Ask your broker or pick up a financial magazine, but don’t ask a friend.

Past Performance: While past performance is not indicative of future performance, I also recommend looking at past performance. Sure… we don’t know how our economy will do, especially among a growing globalized economy. There are so many variables, but unless we see a clear cut, head for the hills change in our economy, I like to look at long term past performance. Forget looking at 1 or 3 years of past performance. Try to look at the long term performance for the last 10 years. You can get such data from Morningstar, AAII, or possibly your broker. A longer history shows how well an index has done through good times and bad.

Diversification: One great benefit to choosing most ETFs is diversification. ETFs mirror an index, which is a basket of stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. The S+P 500 ETF (the “SPY”) has 500 stocks. You don’t need to diversify further in that respect. However, you still may want to consider diversification outside the market of what you initially chose. For instance, if you initially select a small cap ETF, you may want to consider an international ETF, a European ETF, a Clean Energy ETF or a Real Estate ETF, just to name a few alternatives. But again, don’t forget to look for long term past performance or value how you think growth in a particular economy or sector will do in the future.

Your financial goals: The ETF you choose should meet your financial goals. While that sounds obvious, choosing an aggressive ETF like the Emerging Markets Fund (EEM) can offer greater returns, but may have years of significant loses. Be sure to choose an ETF you feel comfortable with in good years and in bad.

Where to begin?

Now that you know what to look for, where do you start? My favorite place is Yahoo Finance, where you can sort through a bevy of choices. You can also try your broker, financial magazines, Morningstar or ETF Connect. A good website should give you the option to sort out ETFs by fund family, fund objective (large cap, international, sector funds, etc), fees, performance or other characteristics.

Quite often, one index may have several different ETFs mirroring the same index. They may all look like the same, but each ETF mirror comes from a different family, just like a mutual fund. You could see popular ETF families like iShares, Rydex, Amex Spiders, Power Shares and Vanguard all providing a similar ETF to the same index.

While some ETFs try to be perfect mirrors of an index, other funds try to improve their performance by offering “actively managed” index funds. This basically means that the fund family took a particular ETF and mathematically changed its composition to try to offer better returns. Power Shares, Rydex and Wisdom Tree specialize in offering these types of managed funds. Although they may have achieved better returns, these families also charge slightly more fees in return for this optimized fund.

No matter which ETF index you decide to go with, you should always have a plan of attack. This means using a stop loss program, setting profit goals, paying attention to market volatility and having a step by step approach.

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