Dispair anger as net eggs dwindle

November 20th, 2008 John Krol Posted in News Financial Intelligence No Comments »

Retirement dreams

give way to despair, anger

Many grappling with golden year disappointments as nest eggs dwindle

Kim Carney / msnbc.com
A rising number of people have seen their retirement plans evaporate. As 401(k)s dwindle, their dreams of golden years are being replaced by feelings of hopelessness and  anger.

It was so close. And then, it wasn’t.

Fifty-year-old Eddie Whitlock thought he was closing in on his hard-earned golden years. According to his master plan, in just five short years he’d retire from his job as executive director for Mental Health America of Northeast Georgia. Then he’d turn his attention to the important things: golf, travel and finally writing that novel.

But this fall, after months of watching his 401(k) dwindle and his stock earnings sink, he accepted his new retirement reality: His golden years would be delayed another 10. If they ever came at all.


“I really think I’ll be working until I die,” says Whitlock, who lives in Athens, Ga. “I’ll be at work till the day they carry me out on a stretcher with a coroner’s tag tied to my big toe.”

One of the biggest worries for those on the brink of retirement used to be how to fill all that spare time. But as the economic meltdown devastates the savings of millions of Americans, a rising number of older workers are now are realizing that retirement instead will have to come much later than they’d planned — if at all. And some of those who had only just to begun to enjoy their leisure years are now having to tuck aside their dreams and, in some cases, their pride, to return to the workforce.

For many, feelings of hopelessness, despair, anger and shame have darkened what until very recently they’d banked on being a new beginning.

“It’s a real sense of shock,” says Phyllis Moen, a University of Minnesota sociologist who studies adjustment to retirement. “Here they thought they were in control, and they created a life that works — and suddenly, they’ve lost control. I think what’s happening is a real upending of expectations of the 50s, 60s and 70s — of what life’s going to be for this group of people.”

Psychologists say those going through this kind of financial crisis may feel a spike in anxiety, panic attacks and depression. And for some, suicide may seem like the only way out. One msnbc.com reader from Cleveland, Ohio wrote ” I have contemplated suicide, but my family does not have enough money to bury me.”

How to cope
— Talk, talk, talk. Share your fears and frustrations with your family, so the financial struggle becomes a family project instead of your burden alone.
— If someone is telling you that they’re worried about you, don’t blow them off. “It’s really easy to say, ‘Oh, I’m fine,’” says Jennifer Harkstein, a New York City clinical psychologist. “But if people around you are noticing a behavioral change, that’s important.”
— Don’t go it alone. Experts encourage struggling retirees to find the time to volunteer or join social activities, to find peers that may be in similar situations and remind themselves that they’re not alone in this.
— If a self-loathing idea floats through your brain — Could I have worked harder? Saved more? — squash it.
— Try tucking away even just a small amount each week in savings. Experiencing the magic of watching a savings account that’s slowly growing will remind you that some things are still in your control.

During the Great Depression, suicide rates rose from 14 to 17.4 per 100,000 people in 1933, according to the American Association of Suicidology, a nonprofit organization that promotes research and training in suicide prevention.

Psychologists are cautious about saying whether they expect a similar increase during these financial hard times, but seniors are in an age group already at higher risk for suicide: Although adults 65 and older make up just 12 percent of the population, they accounted for 16 percent of suicide deaths in 2004, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“There’s going to be a profound sense of loss for some people who had expected to enter their last stage of life and just enjoy it — and now they’re having to go back to work,” says Jennifer Harkstein, a New York City clinical psychologist. “For people who have expected to be retired by 70 or 75, there’s going to be some loss, some grief, that they can’t go and live these years that they’ve planned for.”

For Whitlock, the biggest blow came from the increasingly volatile stock market, as he watched his nonprofit employer’s account lose 25 percent of its value over the last year and a half. When he says he’s too afraid now to even peek at his 401(k), he’s only half joking.

“In the old days, people would be guaranteed an income for life, and they’d have an age at which it was clear they should retire,” says Alicia Munnell, an economist and director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. “We’re now shifting to an age of 401(k) plans, which is shifting all the risks and responsibility to the individuals.”

Downsizing dreams
For those who have retired, it’s a matter of downsizing dreams. So far, 63-year-old Edith Durrant’s retirement years haven’t turned out the way she pictured.

“My real dream always was to own a motor home and just travel,” says Durrant, a retired postal service worker who lives in Bellingham, Wash. Because she and her husband, Ben, had saved a modest nest egg, she says, “I didn’t think I would ever have to worry so much about money again.”

But five years ago, Edith Durrant, who is both epileptic and diabetic, had a particularly intense seizure that sent her into a coma for seven days. The cost of her hospital stay, her medications and the year and a half of care it took her to get well again drained everything the couple had saved for their retirement. Still, with her pension and Social Security benefits, they were doing OK — until Ben Durrant was laid off from his job as a sales manager at Office Max in June. Five months later, he’s still looking for work.

“Don’t get me wrong. We eat. We have a roof over our heads. By the look of my belly, it’s not bad,” says Ben Durrant, who’s 59. “But still, there’s the other side of it. You look on the Internet and it talks about these high fashion things and the trips and things like that. You look at them and you wonder — where did mine go? I’m not going to be able to do that. It’s a very sobering thought.”

Adjusting expectations
The Durrants have resigned themselves to their retirement reality, which is what experts recommend: During an economic downturn of this magnitude, it’s time to let go of most golden-year fantasies.

“I mean, I’m of that age. We’ve all had a disappointment,” says economist Munnell, who turns 66 next month. That’s the age she typically recommends that people retire, and she always imagined she’d follow her own advice. Now, she’s buckling down for at least another five years on the job.

“I’m very like everybody else — I felt like we had put aside enough money, but I didn’t plan on a buffer of 20 percent,” she says. Speaking for herself, she says, “The feeling is one of failure, even though it was really very hard to anticipate anything like this. You do feel like you failed.”

For those at or near retirement age, there’s no more time to save. There’s no magic investment to uncover. It’s best to face your 401(k) and lower your expectations — fast, Munnell says.

“You’ve got to play the cards you’re dealt, and play them the best you can,” she says. “Mourn if it’s a serious loss for you, but then, candidly — get over it.”

And then get to work. With the unemployment rate at its highest in more than a decade, those lucky enough to have a job should forget all thoughts of leaving, says Munnell, who co-wrote “Working Longer: The Solution to the Retirement Income Challenge,” published earlier this year. “(But) the problem is, it takes two to tango here. Employers have to be willing to hire people or to retain them.”

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5 Year Low on Dow

November 19th, 2008 John Krol Posted in News Financial Intelligence No Comments »

Dow falls 427 as stocks hit 5-year lows

Stocks hit levels last seen in early 2003, with financial stocks slammed. Citigroup falls 23%. Worries grow that Congress won’t offer help to automakers. The Fed cuts its economic projections. Tech stocks sag; Yahoo falls 21% after Microsoft says it doesn’t want the company.

By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

Stocks slumped to their worst levels in more than five years today as fears about the deteriorating economy intensified.

The Dow Jones industrials closed down 427 points, or 5.1%, to 7,997, its first close below 8,000 since March 31, 2003.

The Standard & Poor 500 Index was down 53 points, or 6.1%, to 807, its worst close since March 12, 2003. In the process, the index fell below 819, its intraday low on Nov. 13 and a closely watched support level.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 97 points, or 6.5%, to 1,386, its first close below 1,400 since April 16, 2003. The Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX.X) fell 68 points, or 5.9%, to 1,088, its lowest close since April 25, 2003.

Today’s selloff reflected three forces at work:

  • A sharp decline in financial stocks. That was, in part, a show of investor unhappiness that the Treasury Department has junked its plan to take over the troubled assets of a number of financial institutions.
  • Increasing worries that the recession will be much worse than anyone thought, with deflation problems growing. The Federal Reserve issued new projections today showing unemployment could jump well above 7% next year. Prior forecasts had seen jobless peaking at no more than 6%. The economy is “deteriorating faster than any time since the second quarter of 1980,” former Fed governor Lyle Gramley told Bloomberg Television today. Indeed, the Fed pledged at its Oct. 28-29 meeting to take “whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery of the economy.”
  • Fears that inaction in Congress will lead to the collapse of General Motors (GM, news, msgs), Chrysler Group or both.

Citigroup (C, news, msgs) shares fell 23.4% to $6.40, its first close below $7 since May 1995. Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs) fell 14% to $13.06, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs) was down 11.4% to $28.47. The Select Sector SPDR-Financial (XLF, news, msgs) exchange-traded fund, which tracks the financial sector of the S&P 500, fell 10.5% to $10.52.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 were pulled lower by weakness in such key technology stocks as Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs), down 6.8% to $18.29; Apple (AAPL, news, msgs), down 4% TO $86.29; and Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs), down 8.3% to $15.08. (Microsoft is the publisher of MSN Money.)

Google (GOOG, news, msgs) was off 5.8% to $280.18, its lowest close since June 5, 2005. The stock is down 59.5% this year.

In addition, Yahoo (YHOO, news, msgs) was off 20.2% to $9.22, the worst loss among Nasdaq-100 stocks, after Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer once again ruled out buying the company but expressed interest in resuming talks on a Web search partnership.

Adding to the glum mood was the Federal Reserve’s new economic projections, which see unemployment in the United States jumping well above 7% in 2009.

Meanwhile, executives from GM, Ford Motor (F, news, msgs) and Chrysler finished making their case for more government aid to the House Financial Services Committee.

The prospects for actually getting help didn’t look good.

“The problem is the real specter of what we do on the GM front,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies, told CNNMoney. “It’s really hanging over the market right now. It’s the 400-pound gorilla.”

Crude oil closed down 77 cents to $53.62 after a government report showed larger-than-expected domestic oil supplies. There was speculation that crude could fall below $50.

All 30 of the stocks in the Dow were lower on the day. Only seven S&P 500 stocks were higher, along with just one Nasdaq-100 stock: software maker CA Inc. (CA, news, msgs), up 0.2% to $15.30.

With today’s losses, the Dow is down 39.7% for the year. The S&P 500 is down 45.1%, and the Nasdaq is off 47.7%. From highs in October 2007, the Dow has fallen 43.5%, with the S&P 500 off 48.5% and the Nasdaq off 52%.

Asian stocks fell overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.8%, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.8%.

Stocks were down in Europe, as well. London’s FTSE 100 Index was down 4.8%, and the broader DJ Stoxx 600 Index had shed 4%.

Energy prices — New York close
Wed. Tues. Chg. Month chg. YTD chg.
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel) $53.62 $54.39 -$0.77 -20.93% -44.13%
Heating oil (per gallon) $1.7597 $1.7579 $0.0018 -12.29% -33.58%
Natural gas (per million BTU) $6.7430 $6.5160 $0.2270 -0.59% -9.89%
Unleaded gasoline (per gallon) $1.1070 $1.1368 -$0.0298 -23.19% -55.56%

Big Three continue to plead for help :lol:

The automakers want an additional $25 billion in aid from the government’s $700 billion financial-rescue fund, and have said that loan would be enough to help them make it through 2009.

In September, Congress approved a $25 billion loan to the automakers to help them convert to more fuel-efficient vehicles. :oops:

Shares of GM tumbled 9.7% to $2.79 today, a price not seen since 1942. Ford was down 25% to $1.26. Chrysler is privately held.

One analyst said GM might not make it to the end of the year without help. “Without fresh capital, we project that GM may not have sufficient liquidity to make it to year end,” Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache wrote in a note to investors this morning.

Automotive analyst George Magliano of Global Insight told CNBC today that a collapse of Chrysler and GM would cost the economy 1.5 million jobs. He agreed with the auto companies that a bad situation this year was made worse in October when the government let investment house Lehman Bros. fail. That seized up credit markets and made getting a loan or auto lease much more difficult.

The Lehman decision means a “much deeper recession and much slower economy,” he added.

“What would it mean if the domestic industry were allowed to fail?” GM Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner argued in prepared testimony before both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.

“The societal costs would be catastrophic — 3 million jobs lost within the first year, U.S. personal income reduced by $150 billion, and a government tax loss of more than $156 billion over three years.

“Such a level of economic devastation would far exceed the government support that our industry needs,” Wagoner said. “This is about much more than just Detroit. It’s about saving the U.S. economy from a catastrophic collapse.”

GM even took out a full-page advertisement in today’s Wall Street Journal that said that the automaker has taken steps to “position GM for long-term success.” GM spent about $207,000 on the ad, according to CNBC.

Stock Charts (Year) :cry:

General Motors
Graphical chart for GM
Ford Motor
Graphical chart for F

One expert believes the cost to consumers will be high if the automakers fail.

“Vehicles could cost anywhere from 5% to 15% more, maybe even more than that,” Michael Robinet, vice president of global vehicle forecasts for auto consultant CSM Worldwide, told CNNMoney.com.

Yet the prospect of a bailout for the automakers looks pretty grim: Senate Finance Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said there is a remote chance at best that an aid bill will come out of the Senate.

“Their boardrooms, in my view, have been devoid of vision,” Dodd said Tuesday. “They have promoted and often driven the demand of inefficient, gas-guzzling vehicles, and dismissed the threat of global warming.”

Consumer prices, housing starts plunge

Consumer prices fell a record 1% in October, the Labor Department reported this morning — the biggest year-over-year drop since 1947.

Energy prices plunged 8.6%, also a record, in October. Gasoline prices fell 17% in October from September, according to the AAA.

Economists had expected a decline of 0.9% last month, following a flat reading in September.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.1% last month, the first core CPI decline since 1982. Economists had expected the core Consumer Price Index to rise 0.1%.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department said producer prices plunged 2.8% in October, the biggest year-over-year decrease since 1947.

Meanwhile, new housing data provided more grim news. Housing starts fell 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 791,000 in October — the slowest pace since the Commerce Department started tracking the data in the late 1940s.

Economists had actually expected an even worse decline to 776,000 after a 3% drop to a revised rate of 828,000 units in September.

Housing starts are down about 70% from a peak annual rate of approximately 2.2 million in late 2005 and early 2006. They are down 38% over the past year.

Building permits fell 12% in October to an annual rate of 708,000, falling below a previous low of 709,000 in March of 1975.

The housing slump has been the source of many of the economic and financial problems that have plagued the markets in recent months.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders reported that builder sentiment has fallen to a record low.

Citigroup to wind down SIVs

Citigroup shares tumbled after the company announced it will acquire the remaining $17.4 billion in assets held by structured investment vehicles (SIVs) that the banking giant manages.

The value of the funds has fallen from $21.5 billion as of Sept. 30.

SIVs are funds that borrow money by issuing short-term securities at a low interest rate, later lending the money through purchases of long-term securities at higher interest rates.

Citigroup invented the investment vehicles back in 1988 but suffered tremendously this year as the assets sank in value amid the credit crunch and mortgage-market meltdown.

The move is the latest by Citi to try to regain profitability after four quarters of losses and a huge drop in its stock price.

Boeing will delay deliveries

Aircraft maker Boeing (BA, news, msgs) is changing its production schedule to cope with the work stoppage caused by a recent 58-day strike by its machinists union. Boeing will add up to 10 weeks to the delivery dates for aircraft, The Wall Street Journal reported this morning.

Boeing is not expected to discuss details until early next month.

Boeing shares fell 5.3% to $37.48.

Fannie Mae to be delisted from NYSE?

Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) said late Tuesday that the New York Stock Exchange notified the government-backed mortgage company that it is deficient in listing standards and could be delisted.

Fannie Mae shares have closed under $1 for more than 30 consecutive trading sessions through Nov. 12.

The company’s stock fell 19.2% to 38 cents.

Fannie Mae has to tell the NYSE what it plans to do to remain compliant by Nov. 26.

GE to restructure financing arm

General Electric (GE, news, msgs) late Tuesday said it is reorganizing GE Capital, its financing division, to save $2 billion in costs next year. The restructuring will mean job cuts, but the company did not specify how many jobs will be lost.

GE Capital has “evolved to the point where we think we are going to be smaller in 2009,” the division’s Chief Operating Officer Bill Cary said in a video on the company’s Web site.

GE CEO Jeff Immelt has been taking steps to reduce the size of the conglomerate’s finance businesses in the wake of the financial crisis.

Shares of GE dropped 10% to $14.45. GE shares are down 61% this year.

Andrew Rosenbaum contributed to this report.

Short hits from the markets — New York close
Wed. Tues. Chg. Month chg. YTD chg.
Treasurys
13-week Treasury bill 0.065% 0.110% -0.045 -85.06% -97.93%
5-year Treasury note yield 2.091% 2.195% -0.104 -25.88% -39.48%
10-year Treasury note yield 3.391% 3.535% -0.144 -14.58% -15.96%
30-year Treasury bond yield 3.972% 4.144% -0.172 -9.09% -10.92%
Currencies
U.S. Dollar Index 87.565 87.460 0.105 1.41% 14.17%
British pound in dollars $1.4968 $1.4981 -0.0013 -6.96% -24.76%
Dollar in British pounds £0.6681 £0.6675 0.0006 7.48% 32.90%
Euro in dollars $1.2525 $1.2642 -0.0117 -1.75% -14.30%
Dollar in euros € 0.7984 € 0.7910 0.0074 1.78% 16.69%
Dollar in yen 95.94 96.88 -0.94 -2.72% -14.22%
Canadian dollar in U.S. dollars $0.798 $0.812 -$0.0141 -3.60% -19.67%
U.S. dollar in Canadian dollars $1.255 $1.232 $0.0226 3.75% 24.49%
Commodities
Gold $736.00 $732.70 $3.30 2.48% -12.17%
Copper $1.6095 $1.6715 -$0.06 -12.00% -47.07%
Silver $9.3100 $9.5500 -$0.24 -4.32% -37.60%
Corn $3.8000 $3.8000 $0.00 -5.35% -16.58%
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel) $53.62 $54.39 -$0.77 -20.93% -44.13%
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Citi slashes 53,000 jobs

November 19th, 2008 John Krol Posted in News Financial Intelligence, TheStreet.com No Comments »

Citi slashes

53,000 jobs :oops:

The bank also says it will cut expenses by 20% as it deals with the slowing economy; stocks fall. Goldman Sachs executives give up their year-end bonuses. Target’s profit falls. A report on manufacturing in the New York region falls to a record low. :cry:

By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

Citigroup (C, news, msgs) said it will slash approximately 53,000 jobs, bringing its total employee count to 300,000 — increasing investor jitters about the economic slowdown.

download it now and take action

download it now and take action

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Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit announced the cuts at a town hall meeting this morning. Pandit also said the company will cut expenses by 20% to about $50 billion next year. Citi shares slipped 25 cents, or 2.6%, to $9.27 on the news.

Stocks were falling by midday on continued worries about the economy. At 11:45 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 175 points to 8,322 after slumping 338 points Friday. The Nasdaq Composite Index had shed 27 points to 1,490 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had lost 18 points to 855.

Crude oil was down 8 cents to $56.96 a barrel this morning.

Citigroup has lost more than $20 billion in the past four quarters.

Meanwhile, Britain’s Sunday Telegraph reported that JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs) will slash thousands of jobs as well. The paper said JPMorgan’s cuts will be comparable to rivals’ moves.

Citi and Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs) have already cut about 10% of their work forces.

Goldman execs give up bonuses :roll:

Top executives at Goldman Sachs will not be taking home bonuses this year.

Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar, co-presidents Jon Winkelreid and Gary Cohn and vice chairmen J. Michael Evans, Michael Sherwood and John S. Weinberg asked the company’s board to forgo giving them their year-end bonuses because of the crumbling economy.

“Our senior officers decided on this course of action because they believe it is the right thing to do,” a Goldman spokesman said.

In 2007, Blankfein took home a bonus of $68.5 billion in cash and stock.

Goldman stock fell $3.55, or 5.3%, to $63.18 in morning trading. Shares have slumped 69% since the beginning of the year.

Target profit falls

Target (TGT, news, msgs) missed the bulls-eye in the third quarter.

The retailer posted a 24% drop in profit, as consumers held onto their wallets amid the financial crisis. It was the company’s fifth straight quarter of profit declines.

Target earned $369 million, or 49 cents per share, down from the $483 million, or 56 cents per share, it earned in the same quarter a year ago. The results topped Wall Street’s estimate by a penny.

Target also said it is temporarily suspending all of its stock buybacks and announced that it will cut its capital spending plan in 2009 by $1 billion.

“The current environment and our financial outlook have naturally reduced our appetite for investment in our business, and we have also temporarily suspended substantially all of our share repurchase activity,” Chief Financial Officer Doug Scovanner said in a statement.

Stock Charts (Year)

Citigroup
Graphical chart for C
JPMorgan Chase
Graphical chart for JPM
Goldman Sachs
Graphical chart for GS

Shares of Target were down 49 cents, or 1.5%, to $32.54 by midday.

Japan falls into recession

Japan’s economy has officially fallen into recession territory, according to the latest data.

Japan’s Cabinet Office said that the economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter, following a 0.9% decline in the second quarter. Two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is the technical definition of a recession. Japan’s economy is the second-biggest in the world, following the U.S. economy.

In Asia, stocks were mostly lower in the overnight session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index was down 2.7% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shed 0.1%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index managed to gain 0.7%.

In Europe, stocks were falling this morning. London’s FTSE 100 Index lost 2.4%, the German DAX 30 Index was down 3.3%, and the broader DJStoxx 600 Index was down 2.6%.

More economic weakness

For better or worse, investors will gain visibility into the strength of the economy this week, with the release of a number of important reports.

A reading on the manufacturing industry in the New York region showed continued weakness. The New York Empire State manufacturing index fell to a record low of negative 25.4 in November from a reading of negative 24.6 in October. The reading was slightly better than the negative 26 economists had expected.

Negative readings indicate contraction.

A survey by the National Association for Business Economics said economists expect a recession in the U.S. to last through 2009.

“Business economists became decidedly more negative on the economic outlook for the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit-market stresses,” said Chris Varvares, president of the association.

The NABE survey offered dismal forecasts for auto sales, consumer spending and the housing market. A mere 40% of the economists polled believe the Treasury Department’s financial rescue plan will help boost growth, while 48% of respondents said the housing market would not bottom before the middle of next year.

Investors can gauge inflation with the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, which come out Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, before the start of trading.

The PPI is expected to decline by 1.5% in October after falling 0.4% in September, and the CPI is expected to fall 0.8% in October following a flat reading in September.

Inflation had been a major concern for the government before the economic crisis sapped demand in summer and early fall.

Housing still a mess

On Wednesday, investors will get fresh data on the housing market. Housing starts are expected to have fallen to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000, in October after slumping to a level of 817,000 in September.

“History and the natural rate of household formation would suggest that we are near the bottom of a two-year slide, but the outstanding stock of new homes and the overall health of the economy point to even further declines ahead,” CIBC World Markets economist Meny Grauman wrote in a note to clients.

According to a press release from James Hardie Industries (JHX, news, msgs) — the biggest home siding seller in the U.S. — housing starts are down 65% from a peak of about 2.2 million monthly in late 2005 and early 2006.

This morning, home-improvement retailer Lowe’s (LOW, news, msgs) posted third-quarter earnings of $488 million, or 33 cents per share, a 24% decline from the $643 million, or 44 cents per share, in the same period a year ago.

Still, the results were better than analysts’ expectations of 28 cents per share.

Lowe’s said it expects fourth-quarter profit to be between 8 cents and 16 cents per share; the consensus estimate is for 18 cents per share for the current quarter.

The stock was up $1.29, or 7.1%, to $19.52 by late morning.

G-20 announce plans to tackle economic crisis

Leaders from around the world were in Washington this weekend to discuss the slumping global economy.

Leaders from the Group of 20 nations, which make up about 85% of the world’s economy, said they will continue to work on individual efforts to boost their economies. They also announced a common framework for action to promote world economic growth in the first three months of 2009.

“Against this background of deteriorating economic conditions worldwide, we agreed that a broader policy response is needed, based on closer macroeconomic cooperation, to restore growth, avoid negative spillovers and support emerging market economies and developing countries,” the G-20 said in a statement.

The summit communiqué outlined plans to take a critical look at executive compensation. It also called for more transparency in the credit default swap and derivatives markets. Broadly speaking, world leaders have agreed that the world’s biggest financial companies need closer supervision.

“It was a very productive summit meeting,” President Bush said at the summit’s conclusion.

Analysts were not convinced.

“The statement was a bland recitation of past policy initiatives, coupled with comments that were blindingly obvious,” UBS economists wrote in a note to clients.

The G-20 leaders said they will meet again on April 30, 2009.

Andrew Rosenbaum contributed to this report.

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Rethink your Retirement Plas

November 13th, 2008 John Krol Posted in 2008-2038 Investing, IRA Private Equity investing, News Financial Intelligence No Comments »

It’s Time to Rethink Our Retirement Plans

Off shore Investing
It's up to YOU

Let’s fix what isn’t working, before the next financial crisis.

While our nation has experienced other financial crises, the current one is the first to occur when so many Americans bear so much responsibility for their own retirement savings. Never before have those savings been as exposed to the markets, as workers are now experiencing acutely. While stocks will eventually recover, we should take time to rethink how Americans achieve lifetime financial security — and the mechanisms in place to help them do it.

Traditional pension benefits can no longer be relied upon when global competition and rapid technological change challenge the ability of even the greatest companies to make good on future commitments. Moreover, Americans switch employers and even careers several times over the course of their working lives.

Yet the 401(k)s and other accounts that have replaced those pensions are not producing sufficient retirement savings. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, two-thirds of Americans between the ages of 54 and 63 have not saved enough for retirement. It’s not that 401(k)s are bad, it’s just that they were conceived as supplementary retirement vehicles, not as a holistic retirement system.

A new approach, combining the best of traditional pensions and new savings vehicles, is needed. Here are the elements:

- Automate participation and savings. Automatically enrolling employees in plans, then hiking savings with pay raises, overcomes the inertia that results in nearly a quarter of workers eligible for an employer-sponsored retirement plan not signing up. Automatic enrollment plans should mandate employer and employee contributions, and the percentage amounts of each. That’s the approach some higher-education retirement plans follow. It may be one reason why 35% of faculty feel very confident in their retirement income prospects, compared with 25% of working Americans, according to the TIAA-CREF Institute.

- Give workers the information they need. Most of us need advice that is objective — from an adviser who receives no sales commission and thus has no incentive to push particular products — and tailored to our individual goals. Retirement plans must include such advice for everyone who signs up.

In today’s Opinion Journal

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

- Guarantee an income floor. Many retirement accounts focus on accumulation, but fail to include a payout mechanism to ensure retirees will not outlive their savings. Retirement plans should provide that by automatically converting all or a portion of the account balance to a low-cost annuity at retirement.

- Encourage health-related savings. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a couple that retires today will need from $200,000 to $635,000 to pay out-of-pocket health-care costs (above Medicare). Few private-sector employers offer workers an account to save for such costs. Last year’s agreement among the Big Three automakers and the United Auto Workers to establish tax-free trusts for worker health is an approach gaining favor among academic institutions. Now Congress needs to enable people with these accounts to leave any unused balance to heirs. This will encourage people to hold on to their savings until the last years of their lives, when health-care money is most needed.

- Diversify risk. If you had all your retirement in stocks, your account lost about 40% in recent weeks. If you had a mix of stocks and fixed-income holdings, you’re down about 20%. Individuals need to properly diversify, and rebalance their accounts regularly to maintain a prudent mix of assets.

Taken together, these measures offer a way to convert our patchwork of individually owned accounts into a stronger retirement system. All are achievable, provided that policy makers, public officials and companies seize the opportunity this crisis presents to help ensure that workers will have the retirement savings they’ll need.

Mr. Ferguson, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, is president and CEO of TIAA-CREF, which manages retirement savings for 3.6 million individuals and 15,000 institutions. He is also a member of President-elect Obama’s Transition Economic Advisory Board.

Another reason to do something

Another reason to do something

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Its time to take control yourself

November 13th, 2008 John Krol Posted in IRA Private Equity investing, News Financial Intelligence, TIC Investing, The Book Online No Comments »

Some Firms Suspend Their 401(k) Match

As the economy worsens, a growing number of small businesses are suspending their 401(k) match, and, in some instances, closing the retirement plans altogether.

While only about 15% to 20% of small businesses offer a 401(k) plan, many added them in recent years to attract and retain workers and to help business owners save for retirement. But the economic downturn and higher health-insurance costs are forcing companies to cut back on retirement benefits.

“It’s a cash-flow issue,” says Patrick M. Shelton, a partner at Benefit Plans Plus LLC, a third-party administrator of retirement plans in St. Louis. “The companies don’t have money to meet payroll and medical insurance, so they’re cutting back on 401(k) plans.”

The small business market — companies with fewer than 500 workers — had been one of the fastest-growing segments of the defined-contribution market.

‘Critical’ Benefit

A 2007 survey of small businesses by Fidelity Investments found the plans were very important to workers. Almost 70% of the employees said a retirement plan “was critical or very important for businesses to attract and retain employees.” The study also found that 49% of employees who had retirement plans said they wouldn’t move to companies without them.

But as the economy has worsened, more businesses have changed their retirement plans. “We’re definitely seeing that small business exit, and we expect to see it continue through 2009,” says Mr. Shelton of Benefit Plans Plus. “I think the first six months of next year will be off for everyone.”

Mr. Shelton says he has seen 12 plans terminated in 2008 compared with six for all of 2007. The hardest-hit companies are those in the housing-construction, mortgage and trucking industries.

Wells Fargo & Co. also has seen a slight increase in small business 401(k) plan closings.

“It’s not a huge or significant increase, but it’s more than we consider normal,” says Laurie Nordquist, executive vice president Wells Fargo Institutional Trust Services. She says the trend was apparent at the beginning of the year, “even before we had the equity-market volatility in September and October.” In some instances, the companies are closing the plans because of a reduced work force.

“We are seeing a slight uptick in plan terminations by businesses who can’t afford the plans or are going out of business,” says Laurie J. Shultz, vice president, Emerging Markets Segment for the Retirement and Investor Services division of Principal Financial Group Inc.

“The businesses only have so much money for benefits,” she says. “The No. 1 benefit for attracting and retaining employees is medical benefits.”

Ms. Shultz says it’s much more common to see a business suspend the match than close the plan. The current economy could result in a slowdown in the creation of new plans. Ms. Shultz says there’s no change currently “in new startup plans, but what we are seeing in our pipeline is a slight downturn.”

Saving Money

Many more companies, large and small, are opting to suspend the company match this year to save money, including General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., which recently announced they would eliminate the 401(k) match for salaried workers.

A survey released in October by consulting firm Watson Wyatt found that 2% of employers already have reduced their 401(k) or 403(b) match. An additional 4% plan to take the action in the next 12 months.

Shaun T. King, an investment adviser at Hickok & Boardman Retirement Solutions in Burlington, Vt., says, “We’re definitely seeing companies cut back on the amount of the match they put in.”

Companies, he says, are looking at ways to decrease costs. But once a 401(k) plan is set up, he says, most of the cost can be shifted to the employees.

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Derivatives

November 13th, 2008 John Krol Posted in Credit default swaps, Hedge Funds, I.O.U.S.A, News Financial Intelligence, The $600 Trillion Derivatives No Comments »

Derivatives 2008
Derivatives are complex contracts that bet on future events and for which the seller of the contract is paid a premium or recurring premiums by the buyer in exchange for the promise that the seller will pay the buyer should a described event occur. The common feature of a derivative is that it is not a claim on actual assets or commodities.
A CDS (Credit Default Swap) is a typical form of derivative and there are about $62 trillion in nominal (face) value of these outstanding. Derivatives are used for hedging, speculation, and arbitrage. There are private, OTC (Over-The-Counter), and Exchange-Traded Derivatives and they are used for 1) futures and forwards, 2) options (puts/calls), and 3) swaps, among other dubious “financial innovations.”

When you buy a derivative you are buying a contract that is similar to an insurance policy. Unlike a futures contract in which you agree to pay a certain price for future delivery of gold, corn, or whatever, nothing is ever delivered in a derivatives contract - except a payment from the seller of the contract to the buyer should the contract described event happen such as the default of a particular bond. Derivatives are essentially just highly speculative bets that are not secured by anything tangible and this is what makes then so dangerous and volatile - especially in highly volatile markets.

The Wikipedia definition of Derivatives is as follows:

“Derivatives are financial instruments whose values depend on the value of other underlying financial instruments. The main types of derivatives are futures, forwards, options, and swaps.

The main use of derivatives is to reduce risk for one party. The diverse range of potential underlying assets and pay-off alternatives leads to a wide range of derivatives contracts available to be traded in the market. Derivatives can be based on different types of assets such as commodities, equities (stocks), bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, or indexes (such as a stock market index, consumer price index (CPI) — see inflation derivatives — or even an index of weather conditions, or other derivatives). Their performance can determine both the amount and the timing of the pay-offs.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)

The single biggest problem with derivatives is that most all derivatives contracts are UNLISTED PRIVATE CONTRACTS BETWEEN COUNTERPARTIES and there is thus no way to establish “market value” of derivatives. They are not trades on exchanges and are essential subjectively valued “Level 3″ assets that only have value if another party can be found to buy them. If derivatives were required to be STANDARDIZED AND LISTED ON OTC EXCHANGES they would not be such a danger to the economic system as there would be “market value” and they would become much more “fungible” like commodities (which are totally fungible) and there would be transparency.

If you really want to understand why derivatives are so impossible to value and so complex, try reading an actual sample derivaties contract:

ABD AGREEMENT OTC-DERIVATIVES
http://print.onecle.com/contracts/navteq/abn-amro.derivatives.2004.shtml

You will quickly see, even if you are an experience financial person or lawyer, why derivatives are so impossible to value because of their vast incomprehensible complexity with a “trigger” hinged on uncertain external financial events - and that is the most fundamental problem related to the whole $500 billion to $1 quadrillion nominal value derivatives nightmare.

The derivatives bubble is the single biggest credit bubble in the world with some estimates putting the total nominal amount of $1 quadrillion. By the most conservative BIS estimates it is well over $600 trillion. However, there is a huge difference between the actual amount of money involved in the derivatives misadventure and the “nominal” value which is like the face value on a life insurance policy. The actual money involved is more like the premiums paid on a term life insurance policy and is probably no more than 2% of the nominal value. Even at 2% that still means that there are over $12 trillion involved in the derivatives betting game. There is no question but that the derivatives gambling casino will go bust.

GTM

GTM

The best solution is to simply void all derivatives contracts and return the premiums paid on them and unwind the entire derivatives markets in its entirety. All it is financially is a betting parlor with best on which way indexes, or interest rates, or whatever will move. There is no financial value in such arrangements and all is does is to create vast risk of losses (in the guise of doing exactly the opposite by “hedging them”) and this entire derivatives market worldwide should be unwound and shut down in an orderly fashion before it implodes or explodes.

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