Trump sues Deutsche Bnk

November 12th, 2008 John Krol Posted in 2008-2038 Investing, Global Real Estate Investing, Trump No Comments »

Donald Trump sues as tower is hit by credit crunch

This is the next one to Fall

This is the next one to Fall

Donald Trump is suing Deutsche Bank and other finance houses for $3 billion (£1.9 billion) after they cut funding to his project to build America’s second biggest tower.
Donald Trump, left, with a model of the unfinished Trump Tower in Chicago in 2003. The tycoon is suing Deutsche Bank and other finance houses for $3billion (£1.9 billion) after they cut funding for the project.

Donald Trump, left, with a model of Chicago’s unfinished Trump Tower in 2003. Photo: AP

Mr Trump, a luxury hotel developer and star of the television show The Apprentice, claims the banks broke agreements over building and financing the 92-storey Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago.

He had been trying to extend a $640 million (£415 million) construction loan from the group, which includes Merrill Lynch, Union Labour Life Insurance, a property investment trust called iStar Financial and a division of Highland Capital Management.

The 1,361ft high development, with 339 hotel rooms and 486 apartments, is due to be completed next year.

But sales of the flats and hotel rooms have been hit by the property slump, and the development’s projected revenue is now some $100 million short of what is needed to pay off the main lenders.

Mr Trump’s lawsuit, filed in New York, accuses Deutsche Bank of selling off pieces of the loan to “so many institutions, banks, junk bond firms, and virtually anybody that seemed to come along” that they were unable to agree on how to deal with the financial shortfall.

Mr Trump has put $77 million of his own money into the tower, which he could lose in the event of a foreclosure.

Deutsche Bank has declined to comment but Steven Schlesinger, a lawyer for Mr Trump, said its “dysfunctional” behaviour “in connection with big loans is a sign of the times”.

Chicago – which, in the Sears Tower, boasts America’s tallest building – has been hit particularly badly hit by the property downturn after a decade in which its skyline was transformed by a skyscraper construction boom.

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Ideas and Opinions from Donald Trump

November 2nd, 2008 John Krol Posted in Global Real Estate Investing, News Financial Intelligence, Trump No Comments »

Ideas and Opinions from Donald Trump and TrumpU Faculty.

Home : Bottom Line: This is Not the Bottom of the Financial Crisis

Bottom Line:

This is Not the Bottom of the Financial Crisis

Thomas Barrack Jr. is a friend of mine who happens to be a brilliant guy. We’ve partnered on ventures and he’s the CEO of Colony Capital. He’s been following the financial crisis and occasionally sends me his thoughts about what is going on. He makes such good sense that I’d like to quote a few paragraphs from what he sent me a few days ago:
Why Can’t Anybody Find the Bottom?

It all boils down to trust! The mantra of the country is “In God We Trust–but not counterparties.” No buyer trusts any seller, banker, insurer or intermediary. No investor trusts any depository, insurer, broker-dealer or advisor. No Main Street citizen trusts Wall Street, and neither Main Street or Wall Street trusts the government. No counterparty in any transaction has confidence in the other. Values at every level have been artificially adjusted and when the air comes out of the “speculative hope certificates” everyone is pointing fingers at each other for fault and retribution.

The Worst is in Front of Us

Counterparties are renegotiating, borrowers are violating covenants, banks are finding any excuse not to fund existing commitments, insurers are negating liability, and renegotiations of  responsibility and liability are being conducted at every level of the capital structure across the spectrum of companies.

There is no bottom because no one believes the messenger. With trillions of dollars of re-pricing occurring in these markets there is no hurry to catch the falling knife. There will be ample time once that last “dead cat bounce” has bounced and the government launches a coherent and consistent program. For once it will be better to be late rather than early.

Bottom Line: This is Not the Bottom.

Related Posts:

Donald J. Trump is Chairman of Trump University.

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[-] Posted by member1879651 on 10/22/2008 5:25 PM
Trust in general is a very serious matter. Maybe even paramount. It tends to be very strong once established; but once broken, it is extraordinarily difficult to regain. Trust and loyalty are naturally connected concepts as well, where loyalty is driven by trust. If there is no trust, there is also no loyalty, dedication, work ethic, enthusiasm or even a distant interest aimed at the parties in question. Whether people trust financial figures, their personal instincts or historical evidence - it can be said that the world’s co-operative efforts of any form run primarily on trust.

The current financial crisis requires such an effort to gradually avert it from progressing. Perhaps one of the downsides of a strongly capitalist regime, is that in this type of situation - everyone tries to distance themselves from the crisis in an attempt to ensure their own safety. Many people would also seek ways to profit from it. Truthfully, neither of those points are “wrong” but, they certainly represent incomplete trains of thought.

It comes down to short term and long term initiatives. In the short term, doing the above is good. In the long term, it guarantees no stability whatsoever unless the direction of the economy over the next few years comes to warrant it. Ensuring that, is the job of all government and business leaders who have a stake in the current economy. And what will bridge all of these efforts together, is their visibility. As more corporations and government sections start to make clear efforts in their own ways to show leadership for financial stability and independence in the long term - more and more people will be willing to join them in their respective missions.

In the end, trust will be created as a result of these initiatives. There are factors that can easily diminish the effectiveness of this type of plan, such as the continuation of the war, among others. And while I agree that “this is not the bottom”, I do have an optimistic outlook on what amazing opportunities and benefits can arise from the prospective economic rejuvenation that will follow this period.

[-] Posted by Cheryle on 10/23/2008 11:22 AM
After the new President is chosen, and the banks have had sufficient time to re-organize, and people learn how to read mortgage contracts before signing them, and credit cards are not used as if they are monopoly money we have a good chance of recovering from this dramatic display of haywire behavior. Spending money is always alot more fun than figuring out how we are going to pay for it.
The same people who are complaining now, didn’t mind reaping the benefits when the economy allowed for speculative spending. How long is the government expected to play Santa Claus?
We are intelligent people. We are capable of solving difficult problems. Looking at what’s wrong will lead to solutions for fixing something that is broken, not destroyed.
Cheer up! Before long this will be forgotten, and the media will have something new to talk about.
Life goes on… you’ll see.
[-] Posted by member1876964 on 10/23/2008 1:11 PM
As a friend of mine says, we’re back to the times that we have to believe in our capacity to go on, we have to change our mentality in our way to do business, were I live in Spain, I am leading a group of companies and our meaning is to take a good benefit out of this crisis, is it possible to do that?, sure, first of all we must have illusion, create illusion and transmit that what we want to do is possible, have an attractive project that we can negotiate with our government , and be sure that in moments of crisis is when big projects take place. In the Spanish crisis of the 90’s, I have done the same as I am doing now and on that time I have started a tremendous leisure project that launched the economy of our area with an investment of 600 million Eur, meanwhile the rest of the country was stopped, it was a great success, so I think that I have some experience in what to go out and successfully in what a crisis concerns, so now we are planning a big development in our city (witch is on of the most visited cities in Europe, and still in this moment), a big development witch includes a great leisure area including casinos as a part of leisure. This project witch is in a very primary phase, is starting to generate a lot of illusion in the business community, witch starting to believe in it, a project that will attract investors, that in this moment are running away of the stock market witch is the most insecure place to have money. In our area, construction and leisure has been our main business since we have started round the 50s, and our non stop grow has been very successfully since our days.

We will find the bottom line by ourselves as soon as we decide to go on in one way or another and don’t keep waiting to see what is going to happen, if every body is waiting that some one move first than nothing moves, this I have learn years ago, I will recommend you and your friend of Colony Capital to have a trip to Spain and visit us at the Mediterranean coast to see what we are planning and perhaps we can transmit you part of our illusion and see that is possible to go on and that there are a good business to do specially in this moments, because the sensibility of our governments and the need to support special projects is tremendous, so what we will became now, will be impossible in normal times. If we believe in our capacity, and we are capable to use our experience to go on, we don’t’ need to keep sitting waiting for the bottom line. May be others will do.

[-] Posted by member1876964 on 10/23/2008 2:54 PM
As a friend of mine says, we’re back to the times that we have to believe in our capacity to go on, we have to change our mentality in our way to do business, were I live in Spain, I am leading a group of companies and our meaning is to take a good benefit out of this crisis, is it possible to do that?, sure, first of all we must have illusion, create illusion and transmit that what we want to do is possible, have an attractive project that we can negotiate with our government , and be sure that in moments of crisis is when big projects take place. In the Spanish crisis of the 90’s, I have done the same as I am doing now and on that time I have started a tremendous leisure project that launched the economy of our area with an investment of 600 million Eur, meanwhile the rest of the country was stopped, it was a great success, so I think that I have some experience in what to go out and successfully in what a crisis concerns, so now we are planning a big development in our city (witch is on of the most visited cities in Europe, and still in this moment), a big development witch includes a great leisure area including casinos as a part of leisure. This project witch is in a very primary phase, is starting to generate a lot of illusion in the business community, witch starting to believe in it, a project that will attract investors, that in this moment are running away of the stock market witch is the most insecure place to have money. In our area, construction and leisure has been our main business since we have started round the 50s, and our non stop grow has been very successfully since our days.

We will find the bottom line by ourselves as soon as we decide to go on in one way or another and don’t keep waiting to see what is going to happen, if every body is waiting that some one move first than nothing moves, this I have learn years ago, I will recommend you and your friend of Colony Capital to have a trip to Spain and visit us at the Mediterranean coast to see what we are planning and perhaps we can transmit you part of our illusion and see that is possible to go on and that there are a good business to do specially in this moments, because the sensibility of our governments and the need to support special projects is tremendous, so what we will became now, will be impossible in normal times. If we believe in our capacity, and we are capable to use our experience to go on, we don’t’ need to keep sitting waiting for the bottom line. May be others will do.

[-] Posted by member1797425 on 10/23/2008 3:42 PM
Thanks for your very informative blogs, Mr. Trump.
With regard to your previous post about there being tankers around the world brimming with oil, I think people should wake up and take heed of this information.
I can see why you are such an admirer of JFK’s presidency, because, like him, you have a critical mind and are unafraid to ask probing questions… a rare trait in this age of apathy.
I think you would make a terrific president if you ever chose to run.
With every good wish to you and yours.
Eric Smith
Victoria, BC, Canada
commentaryman@hotmail.com
[-] Posted by member1880244 on 10/23/2008 3:52 PM
This is a reality check from the middle class to the middle class. Everyone thinks that the only ones hurting in this crisis are the people that overextended their credit limits. We blame and fairly enough the upper managment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac not to mention the corruption in our Government.
There are some of us out there who pay their mortgage on time and pay their bills and have never asked anything from our Government ,only paid into it. This crisis has legs that no one has yet to see. We had a job transfer last March which was the beginning of a long hard road. My husbands job took us from GA to NC. The kids and I stayed back for 3 months, but eventually you have to have your family in one place. We are now stuck in a market that is not moving and paying a mortgage on a home we are not living in. We are also renting a small home in NC. Now, the bigger picture Two homes, Two power bills, gas prices through the roof and groceries that are unafordable and keep going up.
We have bought and sold three homes in the past 15 years and never had a problem selling. For a middle class family we have always made pretty good money and reinvested it into a new home. We are now looking at loosing all of our equity from the past 15 years in order to sell our fourth home. Is there an answer out there?
In my opinion, I am looking for someone to blame. I am mad! We played by the rules and yet we stand the chance of loosing everything we have worked for. This crisis is not over and many more who have played by the rules will be affected in the long run. I hope some one has some answers and I am open to any advice that may help.
[-] Posted by member1879651 on 10/24/2008 11:13 AM
Re: member1880244
Dear madam,
You have made an excellent point, and you are most definitely not the only one. There are many people who have obeyed all the rules, worked hard to protect their families and financial interests including their credit; yet they are faced with increasingly difficult challenges to overcome in their daily lives.

It’s fair to say that this situation was caused by gross mismanagement of the government in general and specifically the high-risk lending crisis incurred primarily by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with negligent actions taken by certain government and business leaders which in turn compounded the problem.

A basic presidential answer might be: “Vote for me, and we will turn this country around”, but that is not helpful to anyone at the moment; and even if true, will take time to materialize into tangible results for the average American. It seems that the best strategy for those people wishing not to have their lifelong efforts for financial stability go in vain, is to a) Persevere a little bit longer, work hard and not lose hope and b) Wait for the new president to take office, and see what options he makes available in regards to renegotiating your mortgage(s) to make them at least slightly easier to pay off.

In essence, people need to find ways to buy time. The good thing, as mentioned in Mr. Trump’s latest post in this blog, is that the voter turnout for this election will be record-breaking. Which means that the American people are finally paying attention, and in all probability countermeasures for this crisis will follow shortly after. Having said that, it’s important to try to do as much as you can for and by yourself without relying completely on the government to take care of you. It sounds harsh and unfair, but it’s the simple truth.

The republican nominee promises to punish those who caused the crisis, but has a fairly bad recovery plan among other questionable strategies. The democratic nominee probably won’t exact that same level of revenge that people seek, but his plans make much more sense for middle class citizens like yourself and they will also (in my personal opinion) restore America’s image within the rest of the world, which will hopefully lead to further international agreements and relationships that could help speed up America’s recovery if executed correctly. In both business and personal aspects, having great allies is one of the most valuable assets, and it can make a world of a difference.

Finding a skilled financial advisor and accountant might help you squeeze out that last bit of profit which would help you stay afloat longer. Never give up, always look forward and persevere. It may take time, but things will certainly get much better. Good luck!

[-] Posted by member1699847 on 10/25/2008 2:56 AM
Education needs to be part of this bailout solution. The financial crisis was created by irresponsible borrowing and spending. This situation is sure to reoccur unless consumers exercise fiduciary discipline. Money obtained too easily is not respected for its’ innate power.

There is a void in our educational system that needs dire attention. How is it that we spend billions of dollars teaching historical methods and ideas, but scarely little is dedicated to financial education?

I challenge you to teach one person how to be responsible with their money!

[-] Posted by member1881079 on 10/25/2008 11:41 AM
My personal opinion is that the credit crisis is a great ‘unravelling; or ‘de-leveraging’ process. Essentially, recent economic growth has been based not on the declining manufacturing industries or real production but on the creation of a vast asset and financial bubble whose foundation was the ‘fraction’ of real money in deposits that was the ‘fractional lending’ system. It was based trust and confidence and increasing the leverage factor. Currently, however, we have a self-feeding cycle with increasing bad news and ‘runs’ on institutions taking away this trust. The ‘fraction’ is under siege as the leverage multiplier is reduced or gets the carpet pulled out from under it.

I am an entrepreneur. After closing some 300 mil EUR of real estate deals in Central Eastern Europe I set up my own boutique real estate investment brokerage. Maybe it was bad timing but I have been good enough to close some deals. I have had 200 mil EUR of deals bust in the last weeks due to investors losing confidence or finance becoming scarce (hopefully next week I should be able to close a small 30 mil EUR portfolio but this is by no means certain). The credit crisis has lost me hundreds of thousands in fees. I get the feel of it earlier than the mainstream press as the property funds and developers have strong relationships with the banks and they have advance warning of how bad it is.

I will be setting up a small development platform and hopefully over then next few months I should be building up expertise and sourcing projects so that ideally I will be in a perfect position when the upturn
happens in 3 years or so. Or maybe I am wrong? You see, the scary thing is that things are getting worse with some way to go before any kind of bottom. If I extrapolate this downward trend further then should we all prepare for a melt-down? The crisis after all is largely (but not exclusively) fueled by mortgage defaults and prices are not even half-way through their falls. Are commodities rich and ‘real economy’ countries the places to be? Maybe a countercyclical sector is the best idea? Should we wait it out and consolidate or look at some other sector?

Jack

BTW Think big and kick arse everybody :)

[-] Posted by member1874232 on 10/26/2008 11:19 PM
In hindsight, I think, perhaps, the Feds made a mistake with the bailout - certainly the way they did it so loud, dramatic and abrupt.

That is what has created the tailspin in the global economy. It was the cry of doom by the leaders that did it. When Bernanke and Paulsen spoke and foretold the future the way they did, obviously the government had to jump - high.

But the problem is, they scared us all to death, from Brooklyn to Bangkok, Mumbai to London, Rio to Rome. THEY SCARED EVERYBODY. The feds are who did it with this $700 billion white elephant bail out. It sent the message to the world that America wass colapsing, that the tectonic plates had shifted violently and that the aftershocks were going to be pretty horrific. And that is why stability is so hard to achieve now. Because people are scared witless. That’s why they are taking out all their hard earned money from these markets. This may not have even been a natural earthquake. It was probably totally synthetic, and totally avoidable.

Now we are in the aftershock stage of a terrible earthquake which may have happened anyway, but probably as opposed to being a 10 on the Richter, it would have been about a 3.

Now what? Dig out of the rubble person by person, town by town, country by country. The governments of all the countries in the world are the only ones who can undo what they did. They instilled the fear now they have to drain it out. It has to be a gradual, sustained, calm, focused, directed effort by the global powers that be. Stop with the big, quick fix. It scares people. It creates pandemonium. Take the problem in little chunks and bit by bit, build back. I mean, this ain’t rocket science. It’s just geology. Okay?

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Japanese rate cut squeezes through

November 1st, 2008 John Krol Posted in Global Real Estate Investing, News Financial Intelligence No Comments »

Japanese rate cut squeezes through

FIRST REDUCTION IN SEVEN YEARS

PASSED BY GOVERNOR AFTER SPLIT VOTE IN BANK

Tokyo ( Reuters) A divided Bank of Japan cut interest rates for the first time in seven years yesterday, under pressure to join the global response to the worst financial crisis in 80 years, and some analysts saw further cuts ahead.

Lost in numbers An electronic stock board in downtown Tokyo. Japan’s benchmark stock index closed down 5 per cent yesterday with investors dumping stocks after the central bank’s smaller-than-expected cut in its key interest rate. The Nikkei 225 index lost 452.78 points to close at 8,576.98.The central bank was divided over how far to trim rates, with the cut to 0.3 per cent passed on the vote of the governor only after a 4-4 split on the policy board. Three had wanted a slightly deeper cut and one no cut at all.

But the fact that the central bank was willing to cut Japanese rates at all after saying for months that they were already very low at 0.5 per cent was seen by some analysts as a sea change that opened the way to a return to zero rates as recession looms.

“As the world economy will face the most severe situation towards March and lean to further credit easing, the BOJ will need to take a further step towards monetary easing to prevent the yen’s rise and stock falls,” said Nomura Securities’ chief economist Takahide Kiuchi, who forecast zero rates by next March.

Almost no growth

Some analysts had suggested the government was pressuring the BOJ into cutting rates but central bank chief Masaaki Shirakawa rejected that, and suggested the bank had been ready to go further.

“If we look at the economy alone, a wider cut would have been desirable. But if we cut rates too much, that could have a negative impact on the functioning of money markets,” he told a media conference.

The central bank’s policy board also slashed its forecast to almost no growth in Japan for the year to March 2009 and said it was paying special attention to downside risks.

“Frankly, Shirakawa turned extremely bearish compared to the last policy meeting earlier in October,” said Hirokata Kusaba, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.

“But now that monetary policy has made a drastic turnaround and the outlook report forecast nearzero growth and no inflation for next fiscal year, monetary policy will become more accommodative.”

The BOJ warned strains in global markets had increased and the world economy faced severe conditions for some time.

Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano praised the easing as in line with cuts by other big central banks.

“I give high marks to the decision because the BOJ has shown its stance to confront the financial crisis,” Yosano told a news conference. “It is extremely important and also symbolic.”

Global moves

In downgrading its economic outlook, the central bank made it clear it was focusing on the risk of recession.

“Interest rates had been already low. But to deal with changing conditions and to maintain easy monetary conditions, we judged that a rate cut was appropriate,” Shirakawa said.

The rate cut comes two days after the Federal Reserve cut US rates to 1 per cent.

China, Hong Kong and Taiwan also cut rates this week, with the European Central Bank and Australia seen following suit this week, in the midst of a sharp deterioration in major economies.

The BOJ usually moves in quarter-point steps and while Shirakawa said the smaller cut had been made for technical financial market reasons, others saw more meaning in the move.

“The size of the rate cut probably is meant to leave scope for another reduction without bringing the policy target down to zero,” said Shinsuke Kanabu, joint general manager at Central Tanshi.

Looming large at the BOJ meeting was volatility in financial markets, which took Japanese shares to their lowest levels in 26 years last week and pushed up the yen to a 13 year high against the US dollar.

The yen gained against the dollar while Japanese government bonds firmed after the rate cut. The dollar dropped more than a yen to around 97 yen (Dh3.6) while December JGB futures rose 0.07 to 137.98.

Japan’s Nikkei stock average closed down 5 per cent ahead of a long weekend, with investors unwilling to hold long positions with Tokyo closed onMonday.

Perhaps strengthening the case for a rate cut was a dip in annual inflation to 2.3 per cent as oil prices have plunged from record highs in July.

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Global real estate

November 1st, 2008 John Krol Posted in Credit default swaps, Global Real Estate Investing No Comments »

Global real estate

investors seek to diversify holdings

Financial crisis remains cause for worry

Dubai There is currently over $1 trillion (Dh3.67 trillion) outstanding in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US, due to the global financial crisis.

“The CMBS in the US and Europe is moribund,” Steve Wechsler, president of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT), said.

In the next several years, many loans are due as the duration of five to seven years is nearly over and so a substantial number of these loans that are due in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, means the refinancing gap will grow.

“People will need to refinance and to refinance there has to be a banking system prepared to facilitate that,” Wechsler said.

“The ability of the financial system to deliver credit has been compromised and that’s a very serious issue. Governments are working to address the situation and one particular problem facing real estate is that the CMBS market grew considerably in recent years and provided substantial amount of credit for commercial real estate,” Wechsler said.

The mortgage-backed securities system in the first half of this year in the US was $12 million and the immediate prospects of the market coming back are very low, according to Wechsler. “The concern about the real estate system begins with concern about the world financial system,” Wechsler said.

Trend

As for the global commercial real estate, Wechsler said it has become “cross-border”, with many institutions investing outside their home countries.

“What we’re seeing is investors around the world looking at real estate as an asset in which they’d like exposure on a diversified basis.”

And part of diversification is geographic. “Whether it’s in the Gulf or Europe or Asia or the Americas, there’s an interest in diversifying real estate investment in different regions. Both inbound and outbound, there are cross border capital flows,” said Wechsler.

These capital flows will continue to be a healthy part of the world’s investment construction and real estate companies are looking to investment opportunities inside their home countries and abroad.

“The financial crisis may reduce that trend for a time. But there’s no reason in the world, why, if I’m living in Washington DC, I shouldn’t be able to benefit from the cash flow of properties and businesses in the Middle East or wherever,” Wechsler said.

For commercial real estate, including shopping centres, office buildings and hotels, the effect of the crisis has been large.

The effect of the world financial crisis on commercial real estate is significant. The banking system in the US and much of the developed world is under severe stress and commercial real estate, in particular, uses a significant amount of capital.

“So we have a paradoxical situation in many places in the world, which is the underlying real estate business, collecting rent, having tenants, is still doing reasonably well, all things considered, but it’s weakening,” said Wechsler.

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China and Korea market bust

October 31st, 2008 John Krol Posted in China's Economy, Global Real Estate Investing, News Financial Intelligence No Comments »

China and Korea warned

GTM

GTM

to ward off market bust

ANALYSTS BELIEVE FREEING FINANCE FOR HOMEBUYERS IS THE ANSWER

Hong Kong, Seoul (Reuters) China and South Korea have moved to prop up their frazzled housing markets but probably need to do much more to avoid major price slides that could ruin developers, damage banks and threaten the region’s economies.

Dreams gone sour An apartment complex along the Han River in Seoul. In South Korea, where around half the country’s personal wealth is tied up in property, the government pledged five trillion won (Dh14.7 billion) last week to buy unsold homes and land from developers to prevent mass bankruptcies.A share price collapse this week for Chinese property developers such as Guangzhou R&F and China Overseas Land suggests that many investors believe a housing market bust is on the cards, despite a policy U-turn by Beijing.

“Investors might just be throwing in the towel,” UBS analyst Eric Wong said of the sharp drop, which saw some stocks lose as much as 35 per cent of their value over Monday and Tuesday.

The Chinese government, fearing a price bubble, was in market cooling mode only a year ago, squeezing developers with a clampdown on loans and hatching moves to stamp out speculation.

New home prices then slumped by up to 40 per cent in the southern cities of Guanzhou and Shenzhen as sales dried up, and property firms began slashing prices across the country to keep cash flowing in.

The outlook grew even dimmer as the global credit crisis began to buffet Asia and batter its financial markets, stalling the region’s once-roaring economies.

So last week, Beijing unveiled cuts in taxes, mortgages and down payments on homes in an effort to breathe life into a property industry that accounts for about 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

But the country’s biggest developer, China Vanke Co., reported a 13 per cent decline in net profit on Tuesday along with a nearly 30 per cent drop in sales volume, in another reminder of how deep-seated the problems are.

If the housing market fails to perk up, analysts say policy makers will probably resort to macroeconomic measures to spur demand, such as cutting taxes and interest rates.

“The usual monetary cocktail is a blunt instrument but it’s longer lasting,” said UBS’s Wong, adding that Beijing might also raise export subsidies and hike pay at state companies.

On the property side, the government could reel back on its measures to dissuade people from buying apartments as investments and tell banks to start lending to developers again, Wong said.

In South Korea, where around half the country’s personal wealth is tied up in property, the government pledged five trillion won ($3.4 billion, Dh14.7 billion) last week to buy unsold homes and land from developers to prevent mass bankruptcies in the industry.

An interest rate cut of 75 basis points followed on Monday as policymakers tried to keep the global financial storm at bay.

The steps are a reaction to slowing economic growth and a steep climb in the number of unsold new homes on the market, which rose 43 per cent to a record 160,595 units in July from the end of 2007, according to government data.

Just as in China, the government had a hand in slowing the market in early 2007, tightening restrictions on mortgages and buying second homes.

Analysts believe freeing up finance for homebuyers is the answer, not just taking homes off the market. Apartment prices in the most expensive districts in Seoul and in satellite towns have fallen up to 20 per cent from their peaks in 2006. “The measures came too late and are too weak,” Daiwa Institute of Research analyst Hyo Yim said of the government’s action to shore up the property market.

The government should loosen rules on mortgage lending and cut back taxes on owners of two or more homes, Yim said.

Mortgage debt in South Korea is still only a quarter ofGDP, compared to 61 per cent in Australia, and 105 per cent in the United States, according to brokerage firm CLSA. In China, home loans equal only 12 per cent of GDP.

“The government cracked down on so-called speculative buyers, but people won’t buy homes if they don’t expect prices to rise,” said Yim, adding that the housing market would probably not recover before 2010.

Many of South Korea’s 12,000 builders face a cash crunch as credit dries up and home sales slow, with 88 firms defaulting in the first nine months of 2008, up 17 per cent from a year earlier.

Even top developers are not immune to such worries, with shares in GS Construction, Hyundai Development and Samsung Engineering tumbling between 37 and 50 per cent in the last month.

Historical lows

But some analysts are suggesting that South Korean construction stocks may have bottomed thanks to the government’s actions, with valuations at historical lows and at a 30 per cent discount in price/earnings terms to the overall stock market.

BNP Paribas analyst Jae Rhee has a 12-month target stock price for Hyundai Development that is double its current price. And the potential upside for GS Construction and Samsung Engineering is about 70 per cent, he wrote in a report last week.

Chinese developers are now trading at near 70 per cent discounts to net asset value, and at 7.4 times forecast 2008 earnings, according to Citigroup analyst Oscar Choi, who believes the stocks have been sold off “indiscriminately”.

And Beijing will do all it can to stop a property market crash, said CLSA analyst NicoleWong, who has a buy rating on NewWorld China Land and Agile Property. “Policy is very supportive; basically they’re underwriting a put option on market,” she said. “For sure the government will take further steps if the downward spiral doesn’t stop.”

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International Real Estate

October 27th, 2008 John Krol Posted in Global Real Estate Investing No Comments »

International Lessons on Real Estate 8-)

September 22, 2008

If you think it’s hard to sell real estate in America today, take a lesson from the Continent. After spending four days with the Leading Real Estate Companies of the World in Rome, it’s become pretty clear that most American real estate agents have it “too easy.” Just try running your business when selling homes with “verbal commitments that are binding but broken without cause or recourse” and “you have six months to close” is the norm.

It’s about time American REALTORS figured out just how good they really have it.

Yeah, yeah, so the market is soft. So credit is “restricted.” So you have a bunch of listings that are overpriced. Look, at some point, you’re going to face a simple choice: Start taking advantage of the systems and tools at your disposal to do it right; or decide to move on. Let’s face it. We make real estate much harder than it has to be. As a whole, we are still on track to sell 5 million homes this year, a number which, in 2000, was about the same, and NAR hailed that year as “the best year in real estate in a decade.” And we’re right back to about the same number of agents at that time, with lots of available inventory. The “average” REALTOR still made about $46,000 (and most of those people are really “part time”). The top 10% of the industry made well over $100,000 - and they didn’t need a four-year degree or even a Blackberry. Most agents get tons of services, technology and support thrown at them by their brokers. Training that’s free. Advertising they don’t pay for; and leads they never worked to generate. And what do most brokers get in return: Listings that cannot be sold; online photos that look worse than a highschooler MySpace page and agents whining that the “consumer didn’t email them back right away.”

Gimme a break.

Any time American REALTORS think it’s pretty hard to sell real estate, go try it in Europe. Last week I was honored to be asked to deliver the Keynote address for the Leading Real Estate Companies of the World international symposium. Delivering our “Real Estate, the Next Generation” course to European, Asian and African brokers was an exhilarating challenge - because it forced me to update our research and look at their brokerage industries from the outside in (and sometimes inside out).

What’s clear is this: If American brokers want to beef-up their sales force, they should really start recruiting agents from abroad.

Here’s why: In many countries, making sales is done “the hard way.” No lockboxes. No MLS. No cooperation agreements or compensation offers. We’re talking good, old fashioned sales. Agents show up to their showings. Brokers “assign” customers to agents, who have to actually follow up and work with them. Becoming part of a company is an honor for the agent, not a favor to the broker.

This doesn’t mean that European or Asian brokers don’t have lots of technology at their disposal: On the contrary, their cellular technology and websites make far too many American brokerages look like they’re still paying with rocks and sticks.

Yet a major difference in how things work in so many of these companies is that the focus in on doing your job, developing a relationship, making a sale - with about 1/100th of the support from the “real estate community” that most agents in America take for granted. Some examples include the fact that most brokerages sell their own listings abroad; not like here in America - where upwards of 65% of listings are sold by “the other guy from the other company” who finds the buyer for you. Likewise, data is much harder to come by: Not too many “hotsheets” or broker caravans are done abroad, so the job of marketing listings falls squarely on the agent and the brokerage. No “LinkedIN” or “ActiveRain” or even regional or city-wide listings databases. IDX? Is that some kind of driver’s license system?

Proportionally, agents also have far less protections. In some companies, sellers “list and de-list” their properties daily; listing agreements are “kinda real” in too many places, but mostly “agreements” of understanding. Commissions are certainly far lower - as a matter of percentage - and the average sale can take months just to do the “paperwork”. Some countries have so many “stages” of paperwork that you might think you were re-building the home, not just transferring it.

It’s also clear that international demographics are on the path to making things much harder for many countries to sell real estate. Too many countries have shrinking populations; which means new construction may give way to more renovation, but smaller homes (and therefore smaller prices and commissions) will force brokers to be exactingly efficient and financially sound. And while much has been made about American financial distress in the last few years, taken as a whole, the last half-century has been a real estate boom, underpinned by sound monetary policy and consistent property laws. Just try selling real estate in a country where everytime the coalition government changes, they rewrite the finance, ownership and international trade laws - not to play with monetary policy and taxation rates so whimsically, they virtually wipe out the entire real estate industry every decade or so.

The bottom line is this: American agents should all be far more wildly successful than they average today. Even though I was the teacher at the Symposium, I was also the learner: And the biggest lesson was this: the American real estate industry has so many resources at its disposal - from company tools to internet marketing, local REALTOR Associations to international franchise systems and finance - that companies who can’t get their agents selling, no matter what the market conditions, have far bigger problems than the “credit crunch.” As Shakespeare said, “Something’s wrotten in Denmark.” Perhaps he was talking about the wrong side of the Pond?

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