U.S. could be facing

debt ‘time bomb’ this year      

Investors’ thirst for

American securities

could finally be quenched

With the government planning to roll over its short-term loans into more stable, long-term securities, experts say investors are likely to demand a greater return on their money, saddling taxpayers with huge new interest payments for years to come. Some analysts also worry that foreign investors, the largest U.S. creditors, may prove unable to absorb the skyrocketing debt, undermining confidence in the United States as the bedrock of the global financial system.

While the current market for Treasurys is booming, it’s unclear whether demand for debt can be sustained, said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, which analyzes Treasury financing trends.

“There’s a time bomb in there somewhere,” Crandall said, “but we don’t know exactly where on the calendar it’s planted.”

The government’s hunger for cash began growing exponentially as the nation slipped into recession in the wake of a housing foreclosure crisis a year ago. Washington has since approved $168 billion in spending to stimulate economic activity, $700 billion to prevent the collapse of the U.S. financial system, and multibillion-dollar bailouts for a variety of financial institutions, including insurance giant American International Group and mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Despite those actions, the economic outlook has continued to darken. Now, Obama and congressional Democrats are debating as much as $850 billion in new federal spending and tax cuts to create or preserve jobs and slow the grim, upward march of unemployment, which stood in November at 6.7 percent.

Congress is not planning to raise taxes or cut spending to cover the cost of those programs, because economists say doing so would further slow economic activity. That means the government has to borrow the money.

Some of the borrowing was done during the fiscal year that ended in September, when the Treasury added nearly $720 billion to the national debt. But the big borrowing binge will come during the current fiscal year, when the cost of the bailouts plus another stimulus package combined with slowing tax revenues will force the government to increase the debt by as much as $2 trillion to finance its obligations, according to a Treasury survey of bond dealers and other market analysts.

As of yesterday, the debt stood at nearly $10.7 trillion, of which about $4.3 trillion is owed to other government institutions, such as the Social Security trust fund. Debt held by private investors totals nearly $6.4 trillion, or a little over 40 percent of gross domestic product.

According to the most recent figures, foreign investors held about $3 trillion in U.S. debt at the end of October. China, which in October replaced Japan as the United States’ largest creditor, has increased its holdings by 42 percent over the past year; Britain and the Caribbean banking countries more than doubled their holdings.

Economists from across the political spectrum have endorsed the idea of going deeper into debt to combat what many call the most dangerous economic conditions since the Great Depression. The United States is in relatively good financial shape compared with other industrial nations, such as Japan, where the public debt equaled 182 percent of GDP in 2007, or Germany, where the debt was 65 percent of GDP, according to a forthcoming report by Scott Lilly, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

Even a $2 trillion increase would push the U.S. debt to about 53 percent of the overall economy, “only a few percentage points above where it was in the early 1990s,” Lilly writes, noting that plummeting interest rates show that “much of the world seems not only willing but anxious to invest in U.S. Treasurys, which are seen as the safest security that an investor can own in a risky world economy.”

Still, some analysts are concerned that the deepening global recession will force some of the largest U.S. creditors to divert cash to domestic needs, such as investing in their own banks and economies. Even if demand for U.S. debt keeps pace with supply, investors are likely to demand higher interest rates, these analysts said, driving up debt-service payments, which last year stood at $250 billion.

“When you accumulate this amount of debt that we’re moving into, it’s not a given that our foreign friends are going to continue on the path they’ve been on,” said G. William Hoagland, a longtime Republican budget analyst who now serves as vice president for public policy at the health insurer Cigna. “There’s going to come a time when we can’t even pay the interest on the money we’ve borrowed. That’s default.”

Others say those fears are overblown. The market for U.S. Treasurys is by far the largest and most liquid bond market in the world, and big institutional investors have few other places to safely invest large sums of reserve cash.

 

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Despite their growing domestic needs, “China and the oil countries are going to continue running large surpluses,” said C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “They certainly will be using money elsewhere, but I don’t think that means they won’t give it to us.”

As for the specter of default, Steven Hess, lead U.S. analyst for Moody’s Investors Service, said even a $2 trillion increase in borrowing would not greatly diminish the U.S. financial condition. “It’s not alarmingly high by our AAA standards,” he said. “So we don’t think there’s pressure on the rating yet.”

But that could change, Hess said. Nearly a year ago, Moody’s raised an alarm about the skyrocketing costs of Social Security and Medicare as the baby-boom generation retires, saying the resulting budget deficits could endanger the U.S. bond rating. Even as the nation sinks deeper into debt to finance its own economic recovery, several analysts said it will be critical for Obama to begin to address the looming costs of the entitlement programs and signal that he has no intention of letting the debt spiral out of control.

Failure to do so, Bergsten said, would “create dangers . . . in market psychology and continued confidence in the dollar.”

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Derivative (finance) · Economics

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Derivatives are financial instruments whose values depend on the value of other underlying financial instruments. The main types of derivatives are futures, forwards, options and swaps.

The main use of derivatives is to reduce risk for one party. The diverse range of potential underlying assets and pay-off alternatives leads to a wide range of derivatives contracts available to be traded in the market. Derivatives can be based on different types of assets such as commodities, equities (stocks), residential mortgages, commercial real estate loans, bonds, interest rates, exchange rates, or indices (such as a stock market index, consumer price index (CPI) — see inflation derivatives — or even an index of weather conditions, or other derivatives). Their performance can determine both the amount and the timing of the pay-offs. Credit derivatives have become an increasingly large part of the derivative market.

Contents [hide] 1 Uses 1.1 Hedging 1.2 Speculation and arbitrage 2 Types of derivatives 2.1 OTC and exchange-traded 2.2 Common derivative contract types 2.3 Examples 3 Portfolio 4 Cash flow 5 Valuation 5.1 Market and arbitrage-free prices 5.2 Determining the market price 5.3 Determining the arbitrage-free price 6 Criticisms 6.1 Possible large losses 6.2 Counter-party risk 6.3 Unsuitably high risk for small/inexperienced investors 6.4 Large notional value 6.5 Leverage of an economy’s debt 7 Benefits 8 Definitions 9 References 10 See also 11 External links

[edit] Uses

[edit] Hedging

One use of derivatives is as a tool to transfer risk by taking the opposite position in the underlying asset. For example, a wheat farmer and a wheat miller could enter into a futures contract to exchange cash for wheat in the future. Both parties have reduced a future risk: for the wheat farmer, the uncertainty of the price, and for the wheat miller, the availability of wheat. An important note is that the risk reduction is only between the parties involved. There is still the risk that no wheat will be available due to outside causes, for example, the weather.

Also, stock index futures and options are known as derivative products because they derive their existence from actual market indices, but have no intrinsic characteristics of their own. In addition to that, one of the reasons some believe they lead to greater market volatility is that huge amounts of securities can be controlled by relatively small amounts of margin or option premiums. One reason derivatives are popular is that they can be transacted off-balance-sheet.

The strictest absolute hedging practice is employed by a merchant banker who buys in the cash/physical market and sells in the futures market. When he later sells his commodity in the cash market and covers his futures contract(s), he has held the asset without market exposure. This can also be accomplished in conjunction with puts and calls by managing the hedge ratio (delta) to neutral.

[edit] Speculation and arbitrage

Speculators may trade with other speculators as well as with hedgers. In most financial derivatives markets, the value of speculative trading is far higher than the value of true hedge trading.^{[citation needed]} As well as outright speculation, derivatives traders may also look for arbitrage opportunities between different derivatives on identical or closely related underlying securities.

In addition to directional plays (i.e. simply betting on the direction of the underlying security), speculators can use derivatives to place bets on the volatility of the underlying security. This technique is commonly used when speculating with traded options.

Speculative trading in derivatives gained a great deal of notoriety in 1995 when Nick Leeson, a trader at Barings Bank, made poor and unauthorized investments in index futures. Through a combination of poor judgement on his part, lack of oversight by management, a naive regulatory environment and unfortunate outside events like the Kobe earthquake, Leeson incurred a $1.3 billion loss that bankrupted the centuries-old financial institution.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Types of derivatives

[edit] OTC and exchange-traded

Broadly speaking there are two distinct groups of derivative contracts, which are distinguished by the way they are traded in market:

• Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are almost always traded in this way. The OTC derivative market is the largest market for derivatives, and is unregulated. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the total outstanding notional amount is $596 trillion (as of December 2007)^[1]. Of this total notional amount, 66% are interest rate contracts, 10% are credit default swaps (CDS), 9% are foreign exchange contracts, 2% are commodity contracts, 1% are equity contracts, and 12% are other. OTC derivatives are largely subject to counterparty risk, as the validity of a contract depends on the counterparty’s solvency and ability to honor its obligations.

• Exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) are those derivatives products that are traded via specialized derivatives exchanges or other exchanges. A derivatives exchange acts as an intermediary to all related transactions, and takes Initial margin from both sides of the trade to act as a guarantee. The world’s largest^[2] derivatives exchanges (by number of transactions) are the Korea Exchange (which lists KOSPI Index Futures & Options), Eurex (which lists a wide range of European products such as interest rate & index products), and CME Group (made up of the 2007 merger of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade and the 2008 acquisition of the New York Mercantile Exchange). According to BIS, the combined turnover in the world’s derivatives exchanges totalled USD 344 trillion during Q4 2005. Some types of derivative instruments also may trade on traditional exchanges. For instance, hybrid instruments such as convertible bonds and/or convertible preferred may be listed on stock or bond exchanges. Also, warrants (or “rights”) may be listed on equity exchanges. Performance Rights, Cash xPRTs and various other instruments that essentially consist of a complex set of options bundled into a simple package are routinely listed on equity exchanges. Like other derivatives, these publicly traded derivatives provide investors access to risk/reward and volatility characteristics that, while related to an underlying commodity, nonetheless are distinctive.

[edit] Common derivative contract types

There are three major classes of derivatives:

1. Futures/Forwards, which are contracts to buy or sell an asset at a specified future date.
2. Options, which are contracts that give a holder the right to buy or sell an asset at a specified future date.
3. Swappings, where the two parties agree to exchange cash flows or returns.

[edit] Examples

Some common examples of these derivatives are:

UNDERLYING	CONTRACT TYPES
	Exchange-traded futures	Exchange-traded options	OTC swap	OTC forward	OTC option
Equity Index	DJIA Index future NASDAQ Index future	Option on DJIA Index future Option on NASDAQ Index future	Equity swap	Back-to-back	n/a
Money market	Eurodollar future Euribor future	Option on Eurodollar future Option on Euribor future	Interest rate swap	Forward rate agreement	Interest rate cap and floor Swaption Basis swap
Bonds	Bond future	Option on Bond future	n/a	Repurchase agreement	Bond option
Single Stocks	Single-stock future	Single-share option	Equity swap	Repurchase agreement	Stock option Warrant Turbo warrant
Credit	n/a	n/a	Credit default swap	n/a	Credit default option

Other examples of underlying exchangeables are:

• Property (mortgage) derivatives
• Economic derivatives that pay off according to economic reports ([1]) as measured and reported by national statistical agencies
• Energy derivatives that pay off according to a wide variety of indexed energy prices. Usually classified as either physical or financial, where physical means the contract includes actual delivery of the underlying energy commodity (oil, gas, power, etc.)
• Commodities
• Freight derivatives
• Inflation derivatives
• Insurance derivatives^{[citation needed]}
• Weather derivatives
• Credit derivatives

[edit] Portfolio

It should be understood that derivatives themselves are not to be considered investments since they are not an asset class. They simply derive their values from assets such as bonds, equities, currencies, etc. and are used to either hedge those assets or improve the returns on those assets.

[edit] Cash flow

The payments between the parties may be determined by:

• the price of some other, independently traded asset in the future (e.g., a common stock);
• the level of an independently determined index (e.g., a stock market index or heating-degree-days);
• the occurrence of some well-specified event (e.g., a company defaulting);
• an interest rate;
• an exchange rate;
• or some other factor.

Some derivatives are the right to buy or sell the underlying security or commodity at some point in the future for a predetermined price. If the price of the underlying security or commodity moves into the right direction, the owner of the derivative makes money; otherwise, they lose money or the derivative becomes worthless. Depending on the terms of the contract, the potential gain or loss on a derivative can be much higher than if they had traded the underlying security or commodity directly.

[edit] Valuation

[edit] Market and arbitrage-free prices

Two common measures of value are:

• Market price, i.e. the price at which traders are willing to buy or sell the contract
• Arbitrage-free price, meaning that no risk-free profits can be made by trading in these contracts; see rational pricing

[edit] Determining the market price

For exchange-traded derivatives, market price is usually transparent (often published in real time by the exchange, based on all the current bids and offers placed on that particular contract at any one time). Complications can arise with OTC or floor-traded contracts though, as trading is handled manually, making it difficult to automatically broadcast prices. In particular with OTC contracts, there is no central exchange to collate and disseminate prices.

[edit] Determining the arbitrage-free price

The arbitrage-free price for a derivatives contract is complex, and there are many different variables to consider. Arbitrage-free pricing is a central topic of financial mathematics. The stochastic process of the price of the underlying asset is often crucial. A key equation for the theoretical valuation of options is the Black–Scholes formula, which is based on the assumption that the cash flows from a European stock option can be replicated by a continuous buying and selling strategy using only the stock. A simplified version of this valuation technique is the binomial options model.

[edit] Criticisms

Derivatives are often subject to the following criticisms:

[edit] Possible large losses

See also: List of trading losses

The use of derivatives can result in large losses due to the use of leverage, or borrowing. Derivatives allow investors to earn large returns from small movements in the underlying asset’s price. However, investors could lose large amounts if the price of the underlying moves against them significantly. There have been several instances of massive losses in derivative markets, such as:

• The need to recapitalize insurer American International Group (AIG) with $85 billion of debt provided by the US federal government^[3]. An AIG subsidiary had lost more than $18 billion over the preceding three quarters on Credit Default Swaps (CDS) it had written.^[4] It was reported that the recapitalization was necessary because further losses were foreseeable over the next few quarters.
• The loss of $7.2 Billion by Société Générale in January 2008 through mis-use of futures contracts.
• The loss of US$6.4 billion in the failed fund Amaranth Advisors, which was long natural gas in September 2006 when the price plummeted.
• The bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management in 2000.
• The bankruptcy of Orange County, CA in 1994, the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. On December 6, 1994, Orange County declared Chapter 9 bankruptcy, from which it emerged in June 1995. The county lost about $1.6 billion through derivatives trading. Orange County was neither bankrupt nor insolvent at the time; however, because of the strategy the county employed it was unable to generate the cash flows needed to maintain services. Orange County is a good example of what happens when derivatives are used incorrectly and positions liquidated in an unplanned manner; had they not liquidated they would not have lost any money as their positions rebounded.^{[citation needed]} Potentially problematic use of interest-rate derivatives by US municipalities has continued in recent years. See, for example:^[5]
• The Nick Leeson affair in 1994

[edit] Counter-party risk

Derivatives (especially swaps) expose investors to counter-party risk.

For example, suppose a person wanting a fixed interest rate loan for his business, but finding that banks only offer variable rates, swaps payments with another business who wants a variable rate, synthetically creating a fixed rate for the person. However if the second business goes bankrupt, it can’t pay its variable rate and so the first business will lose its fixed rate and will be paying a variable rate again. If interest rates have increased, it is possible that the first business may be adversely affected, because it may not be prepared to pay the higher variable rate.

Different types of derivatives have different levels of risk for this effect. For example, standardized stock options by law require the party at risk to have a certain amount deposited with the exchange, showing that they can pay for any losses; Banks who help businesses swap variable for fixed rates on loans may do credit checks on both parties. However in private agreements between two companies, for example, there may not be benchmarks for performing due diligence and risk analysis.

[edit] Unsuitably high risk for small/inexperienced investors

Derivatives pose unsuitably high amounts of risk for small or inexperienced investors. Because derivatives offer the possibility of large rewards, they offer an attraction even to individual investors. However, speculation in derivatives often assumes a great deal of risk, requiring commensurate experience and market knowledge, especially for the small investor, a reason why some financial planners advise against the use of these instruments. Derivatives are complex instruments devised as a form of insurance, to transfer risk among parties based on their willingness to assume additional risk, or hedge against it.

[edit] Large notional value

• Derivatives typically have a large notional value. As such, there is the danger that their use could result in losses that the investor would be unable to compensate for. The possibility that this could lead to a chain reaction ensuing in an economic crisis, has been pointed out by legendary investor Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report. Buffett called them ‘financial weapons of mass destruction.’ The problem with derivatives is that they control an increasingly larger notional amount of assets and this may lead to distortions in the real capital and equities markets. Investors begin to look at the derivatives markets to make a decision to buy or sell securities and so what was originally meant to be a market to transfer risk now becomes a leading indicator.

(See Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report for 2002)

[edit] Leverage of an economy’s debt

Derivatives massively leverage the debt in an economy, making it ever more difficult for the underlying real economy to service its debt obligations and curtailing real economic activity, which can cause a recession or even depression.^[6] In the view of Marriner S. Eccles, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman from November, 1934 to February, 1948, too high a level of debt was one of the primary causes of the 1920s-30s Great Depression. (See Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report for 2002)

[edit] Benefits

Nevertheless, the use of derivatives also has its benefits:

• Derivatives facilitate the buying and selling of risk, and thus have a positive impact on the economic system^{[citation needed]}. Although someone loses money while someone else gains money with a derivative, under normal circumstances, trading in derivatives should not adversely affect the economic system because it is not zero sum in utility.
• Former Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan commented in 2003 that he believed that the use of derivatives has softened the impact of the economic downturn at the beginning of the 21st century.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Definitions

• Bilateral Netting: A legally enforceable arrangement between a bank and a counter-party that creates a single legal obligation covering all included individual contracts. This means that a bank’s obligation, in the event of the default or insolvency of one of the parties, would be the net sum of all positive and negative fair values of contracts included in the bilateral netting arrangement.

• Credit derivative: A contract that transfers credit risk from a protection buyer to a credit protection seller. Credit derivative products can take many forms, such as credit default swaps, credit linked notes and total return swaps.

• Derivative: A financial contract whose value is derived from the performance of assets, interest rates, currency exchange rates, or indexes. Derivative transactions include a wide assortment of financial contracts including structured debt obligations and deposits, swaps, futures, options, caps, floors, collars, forwards and various combinations thereof.

• Exchange-traded derivative contracts: Standardized derivative contracts (e.g. futures contracts and options) that are transacted on an organized futures exchange.

• Gross negative fair value: The sum of the fair values of contracts where the bank owes money to its counter-parties, without taking into account netting. This represents the maximum losses the bank’s counter-parties would incur if the bank defaults and there is no netting of contracts, and no bank collateral was held by the counter-parties.

• Gross positive fair value: The sum total of the fair values of contracts where the bank is owed money by its counter-parties, without taking into account netting. This represents the maximum losses a bank could incur if all its counter-parties default and there is no netting of contracts, and the bank holds no counter-party collateral.

• High-risk mortgage securities: Securities where the price or expected average life is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, as determined by the FFIEC policy statement on high-risk mortgage securities.

• Notional amount: The nominal or face amount that is used to calculate payments made on swaps and other risk management products. This amount generally does not change hands and is thus referred to as notional.

• Over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts : Privately negotiated derivative contracts that are transacted off organized futures exchanges.

• Structured notes: Non-mortgage-backed debt securities, whose cash flow characteristics depend on one or more indices and/or have embedded forwards or options.

• Total risk-based capital: The sum of tier 1 plus tier 2 capital. Tier 1 capital consists of common shareholders equity, perpetual preferred shareholders equity with non-cumulative dividends, retained earnings, and minority interests in the equity accounts of consolidated subsidiaries. Tier 2 capital consists of subordinated debt, intermediate-term preferred stock, cumulative and long-term preferred stock, and a portion of a bank’s allowance for loan and lease losses.

[edit] References

[edit] See also

• FX Option
• Equity option
• Interest rate derivative
• DPC, Derivative Products Company

[edit] External links

• BBC NEWS | Business |Buffett warns on investment ‘time bomb’
• Slate Magazine | Moneybox |Stocks Are So 20th Century By Daniel Gross — A short introduction to Derivatives
• Finance Articles
• Derivatives–The Mystery Man Who’ll Break the Global Bank at Monte Carlo
• A beginner’s guide to derivatives, MoneyWeek, September 29, 2006
• Derivatives Overview: What are they, Do they work, Uses, Abuses
• [2] Hedge funds and the dangers of reckless complacency

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