What’s next for the markets in 2009?(Business)
Article from:
Rocky Mountain News (Denver, CO)
Article date:
January 1, 2009
Author:
Milstead, David
More results for:
IRA retirement
Byline: David Milstead, Rocky Mountain News
READING THE MARKETS
After all we saw in 2008, what’s next for 2009? Not surprisingly, investment pros and economists contacted by the Rocky Mountain News are all over the map in forecasting what will happen to your portfolio this year. Highlights from our e-mail survey:
What kind of return do you see for the S&P 500 in 2009?
Gregory Anderson, CEO, GRAnderson Wealth Management Group
With many investors on the sidelines holding cash, poised to invest, I suspect that we could see a 25 percent to 30 percent increase in 2009.
Andre Ratkai, Praxis Advisory Group
The S&P 500 is likely to see a total return in the 10-15 percent range, recovering only part of 2008’s loss. While stocks have suffered a historic drop in 2008 and many stocks are at low valuations, the brunt of the recession is just now unfolding. That will keep a psychological lid on the enthusiasm to buy stocks, prompting investors to wait for clear evidence of recovery before embracing stocks again.
Jeff M. Wilson, Wilson Advisory Group
Zero. Sometime during 2009 the Dow will fall to 5,000 and the S&P to 400. After the panic, there will be a glimmer of hope. It may come from the new stimulus package, an improvement in some economic data, Obama’s ability to inspire hope and confidence or Wall Street’s declaration that it can’t get any worse; we will return to January 2009 levels by December 2009.
Did we see the bottom for stocks in November?
Dennis Clark, Capital Asset Management
I believe we did. The market tested the high 7,000s to low 8,000s on two occasions. Also there were days when the market was up or flat on bad economic news. It tells us that when that happens news is priced into the market.
Fred Taylor, principal, Northstar Investment Advisors
I hope we saw the bottom in November, but I seriously doubt it. Typically markets find a bottom after retesting the lows more than once and not when everyone has predicted that the bottom has already happened, which is the case today.
Barbara Walchli, Aquila Rocky Mountain Equity Fund
Stock market breadth (number of new lows) bottomed on Oct. 10, while most of the indices bottomed on Nov. 20.
We think we have seen the worst.
What quarter of 2009, if any, do you see the U.S. emerging from recession?
Gregory Anderson
Although there are plans to jump-start the economy through further government stimulus packages, we probably won’t see any true economic growth until mid-2010.
Barbara Walchli
The U. S. economy is likely to emerge from recession in the third or fourth quarter of 2009. Lower energy prices, lower mortgage rates and a stimulus bill should help consumer confidence. More tax and economic policy clarity from the Obama administration over the next few months should help consumers and businesses to make investment decisions which should help to move the economy forward.
What are some appealing sectors - and, please pick a stock that looks attractive to you now.
Michael Serota
I like Bank of America, New York Community Bank, and if you can find General Obligation triple-A-rated municipal bonds, they most likely have very attractive yields and tax advantages.
Bill Greiner, chief investment officer, UMB Financial
Rather than focus on sectors, we would rather focus on dividends, the growth of dividends and the sustainability of those trends. Since the 1920s, more than 40 percent of the total return from U.S. stocks has come from dividend payments. We are finding a number of high-quality companies who we believe will retain their current dividend flows and increase these going forward. Actual examples of this type of idea are CAT and AEE.
David A. Twibell, president-wealth management, Colorado Capital Bank
I think there are some real opportunities in infrastructure-related stocks, commodities and investment grade corporate bonds. Some attractive stocks include McDermott International, Caterpillar and NYSE Euronext.
Andre Ratkai
Appealing sectors for 2009 include: gold (Randgold and Royal Gold); military defense (Raytheon and EMS Technologies); pollution control (Tetra Tech and Insituform); and major construction (Granite Construction and Jacobs Engineering).
What are the things the Obama administration should do in its first months to improve the economy and capital markets?
Don Cassidy, president, Retirement Investing Institute
Targeted tax credits such as for buying USA-made cars with high MPG ratings only. Conversely, add a 10 percent tax on purchases of SUVs etc. Credits for solar installations. Increase the deductible capital loss amount for a year or two, from its present $3,000 per year. Pass a moratorium on mandatory distributions from IRA plans, so people are not forced to lock in their losses by taking withdrawals near the lows. Stop all federal purchases of vehicles with conventional gasoline engines, forcing Detroit to make the switch as fast as possible. Reduce aid to states that do not do likewise. Take advantage of the low gasoline prices by raising the fed gas tax by 1.5 cents/month until price hits $3.50 again. Use the added revenue for deficit reduction and road/bridge projects, 5 0/50.
Jerry Paul, Quixote Capital Management
I think the Obama administration should come out with a two-prong attack on the housing crisis. The first would be something similar to the plan Treasury has floated with respect to creating availability of 4.5 percent 30-year mortgages of up to $1 million. In this case, the plan should be available to all homeowners who have remained current on their existing mortgage. The second prong requires addressing the foreclosure problem. On this, I would defer to FDIC Chair Sheila Bair’s ideas.
Michael Williams, professor of finance, University of Denver’s Daniels College of Business
What the new administration should not do is raise taxes on those business entities that can provide for future economic growth. By raising taxes on “individuals” earning more than $250,000, the government is reducing the amount that small businesses have to plow back into the business. S-corporations and partnerships pay taxes on 100 percent of the organizations’ earnings but rarely pay out 100 percent of the earnings. The difference is the amount of additional investment in the business. If taxes are increased, the business will have to pay out more to the individual owner to cover taxes, thus leaving less to use for growth of the small business.
INFOBOX
How important is the recent decline in the price of oil for business investment and consumer spending in 2009?
Michael L. Serota, senior vice president-investments, Raymond James & Associates
Huge. This is the biggest economic stimulus package that there could be. Oil in the low to mid-$30s, corresponding to $1.50 per gallon, is the cheapest gas has been in multiple years. Just six months ago, clients were telling me that we would “never” see $2-per-gallon gas in our lifetime again. Reaffirming that conventional wisdom is usually wrong.
Warren Olsen, First Western Trust Bank
While the recent decline in oil prices (and the attendant decrease in gas prices) gives some relief to the consumer, I don’t think it is going to have a major effect on the economy. Oil is not a major part of our economy in terms of the business sector, and for the consumer it is all going to be about getting debt under control and then confidence about their jobs.
Get Ready
on September 15th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Our Student Ministry is in full force! I just got hired at a new church in the beginning of summer, and our volunteers have shown up to do so much!
- I convinced our pastor that we needed to build a new student ministry stage in the back corner of our worship center and he allowed it! We now have a 3 foot stage that our students are able to call their own for worship on Sunday nights, complete with brick wall, corrugated aluminum, chain link fencing, and chalkboard paint for announcements!! ALL DONATED BY OUR CHURCH FAMILY!
- We’ve had our first student small groups meet, and our students and adults loved them! They’re looking forward to having some time to connect with each other through bible study.
- Our adults have our own small group that meets twice a month. We’re using contemplative practices to help us focus and enjoy our lives with each other and Christ. We’re also learning to implement this into our youth ministry practices, what our students have responded to in AMAZING ways!
I’ve seen our church respond to TRUE excitement. Not just that charismatic attitude, but to a love for our students that is spurred by our own love for Jesus. God is so active in our ministry, and although MANY things are going bad, God is still in love with his people, and wants to be in relationship with them. GOD IS AMAZING!!
on September 15th, 2008 at 9:01 am
There are at least two things (and many more!) that are going well in the life of ministry with youth. The first is thinking theologically about ministry with youth. Thanks in large part to Chap Clark, Kenda Dean, and Marko, there is a whole new generation of scholars that are making huge waves in the “shallow end of the pool” and getting us all into the deep end. They are challenging us to have Christ-centered youth ministries and not simply follow along the road always taken. They are equipping many geneartions of youth workers with the ability to think theologically about youth ministry and not simply think about the games and mess that happen (and still need to happen!) in youth ministry.
The other great thing that is happening is the swell in youth to care about others. After watching global consumerism reach new heights, youth are showing an amazing desire to help others and not just in exotic places. The compassion for others is just exploding all over the place in students lives. I think this is a prime example that the personal transformation that youth ministry is a great partner in God’s work is still going strong but we need to add the other part of the coin which is the transformation of the neighborhood (ht: to my senior pastor for that analogy). Youth are primed and ready to reach out to the world. We just need to equip them to do so.
on September 15th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Our students truly care for each other as much as possible for teenagers to do.
Recently a student’s dad had a heart attack and died while we were on our fall retreat. The outpouring of love and concern for her and her sister has been a testimony to our students faith.
Real faith met the reality of life in our group and our students have met the challenge.
on September 15th, 2008 at 9:45 am
What’s right with student ministry, oh let me count the ways…
student ministry by any other name would still as sweet, and by sweet I mean smell like middle school boys gym socks, stale pizza, and that one kids that seems to always smell like fancy cheese that tastes like toes…
1. God is sovereign and God is love. No matter what kind of most-modern, post-modern transition, worlds, cultures, societies, or churches (did he just say churches?) seem to be going through. Teenagers will always be loved and sought after by God. We just had the privilege of seeing 4 students saved this past week, baptized 2 on Sunday, and the other 2 hopefully this next Sunday. God has lead one of our students to realize God’s call on her life for ministry. Another girl has felt led to begin a drama ministry to not primarily for the church but to use it as a way to draw in her un-churched drama friends in her high school.
2. We host a ‘2nd Sunday Lunch’ the 2nd Sunday of each month during the school year. Yesterday was our first of the year, we had 5 couples that have no teenagers in the student ministry (in fact most of them don’t have kids even still in the house) show up just to meet students and parents and find out how they can help serve our student ministry.
3) One of my seniors from last year spent his entire summer before college in Zambia sharing the gospel by riding a motorcycle across the country and visiting Aids Orphans and villages with the Jesus Film. His team saw 400 professions of faith. He is going to college and joining the Air Force reserves to become a pilot because he believes God has transformed his life long dream of being ‘Maverick’ from Top Gun into become a missionary pilot for the Glory of God. [He just stopped by my office an hour ago this morning to show me his new motorcycle that he got to replace his SUV. For him it is an economic move, to be a good steward, but also an environmental move, also to be a good steward.]
4. I had a guy shake my hand last night after our annual church townhall meeting where I presented the state of the union address on our student ministry. Well it wasn’t a hand shake so much as a stealthy old man’s way of slipping me a ‘Benjamin’ and telling me to do something nice for my wife and family. WOW! as if working with teenagers wasn’t already reward enough.
5. All the students that have made professions of faith, or other decisions for Christ, have been filmed sharing their story (testimony, for those unable to decipher non-churchy language) and we are in the process of editing each video and giving it back to the student for them to post on myspace, youtube, etc.
6. The best is yet to come! I truly believe that. Kids getting saved, plugged into church, involved in ministry (even creating new ministries) and developing a passion for missions: How can the best NOT be yet to come?
This is what is right with Student Ministry.
on September 15th, 2008 at 11:12 am
I have to say what’s going right? Well I see alot of youthworkers and youth that love each other and love our God including the great people @ YS!!
Just this past week I got a student saying how much they loved our church. (MY prayer is they don’t just love the church but love Jesus as well)
on September 15th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
In my last church (I’ve only been in my new church for 3 weeks), there were a few things that really seemed to work well with the students.
First of all, we worked really hard to make the group open and accepting of all. We ended up with all the misfits and the kids who didn’t belong anywhere else. It was great! Over a period of time, a real community developed, and the students feel safe to share and be themselves.
Because of that atmosphere, we were able to hold a group called “Think Tank.” The students named it, and it was simply a small group setting where anyone was welcome to bring up a topic, ask a question, share a doubt, etc. They really tackled some hard issues and tough questions together, and the depth of faith that flowed out of that group was amazing!
I also noticed that contemplative prayer practices and giving the students opportunities to be still and silent worked for us. Although uncomfortable at first, the students responded and came to the point where they craved the silence during youth group because it was the only place in their lives that wasn’t overrun with noise, busyness and chaos.
on September 15th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
our vision for the school year is to reach every student in our city with the love of Jesus. our statement is “every student”. our students are responding as we had a record crowd at our student ministry last week where the gospel was clearly presented and many responded. we will continue through out the school year to reach every student, whether it is through one of our environments, campus ministry or service projects, it’s a very focused and determined vision that we have been given.
on September 15th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Weekly youth ministry is starting at Union Congregational Church for the first time in a long time — and we’re beginning with encouraging students to ask and live the questions instead of promising them all the answers.
on September 15th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Youth today are starting to think outside the box, they are truly engaged into the depth of their faith. They know what it means to do church in a new way. For me Bible studies are working youth are not just getting it but also applying it every aspect of life. Also, for me there is more ways than ever to make a connection with youth for me to support, encourage, and guide youth through life; that is what is right about youth ministry, it is new!
on September 16th, 2008 at 1:12 am
[...] at the Youth Specialties Blog, Adam McLane asked “What’s going right with youth ministry?” Hey, good [...]
on September 16th, 2008 at 6:35 am
Adam -
I was thinking about this question just this weekend. So far this semester, I have seen a crowded chapel for each Mass, a dozen kids praying the Rosary together on a Wednesday evening, 20 at a 10pm Mass on Tuesday, and tons of enthusiasm for sharing the friendship and faith that are essential to college campus ministry. What is going right, though? I think it is the sense of purpose among the kids here that comes from their faith. They are not ashamed of it; in fact, they celebrate the fact that they are Catholic, and they want other Catholics to be proud of it too.
The participation of the students is great - although, as Archbishop O’Brien told us campus ministers, “It’s not all about numbers.” There is a renewed sense of pride int heir faith and a desire to learn more and share it with others. For me, it doesn’t get any better than that!
(If I may now make a shameless pitch…my post tomorrow will be on this very topic, so I altered it a little to connect with this discussion. I hope to see a lot of feedback here!)
on September 16th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
i cannot say we are doing this well yet, but i see the trend towards embracing families and parents as a positive step. it’s hard to ignore or refute the amount of good research out there stating the value of parents in shaping the lives of young people. we are working weekly on making our ministry more and more parent friendly and encouraging parent involvement.
convincing students and parents that this is good is another thing though!
on September 17th, 2008 at 5:34 am
For me, this image is one of the major things that I believe is good about youth ministry.
http://www.lifeccyouth.com/images/whatsgoodaboutym.jpg
The kid who is a part of this chat is a friend of some of our youth. He comes to some of our events from time to time … but he’s not yet connected in church.
And yet … we are still able to minister to him.
A lot of us working with youth have been specially trained for ministering to these kids because we’ve experienced many of the hurts and failures that they are experiencing now. They need us … Youth Ministers and Youth Workers … to simply talk to them.
What’s good about Youth Ministry … having the opportunity to steer a teen clear of disaster and to set them on a path of following Jesus or having the opportunity to pull a teen out of a hole they’ve already fallen into and setting them on that same path.
Go with God,
Donald B
on September 17th, 2008 at 9:13 am
I feel one good thing in youth ministry is in the place of academia, schools are trending more toward specializing and moving away from generalizing. I didn’t feel this was positive at first because I felt pastors would be pigeon-holed; but as I’ve seen some of the specialists at work, I’m pleased with the results.
Another thing I’m seeing, is the thought of moving away from specific programming that is only in place to attract big numbers. I’ve been very guilty of this in the past, but the results end up being a mile wide and an inch deep; not the goal! It’s good to see deeper thought put into truly developing those who are interested in the Christian faith rather then spin the wheels on those that are more interested in the next trip to an amusement park.
on September 17th, 2008 at 9:14 am
When we started here 3 years ago it was a mess. We had to pick up the peices of failed leaders from the past and mend the broken trust of students, parents, leaders and many others. The ministry was very unhealthy and the vast majority of the students were quite shallow.
Since that time we have focussed on establishing a mission to rally around. We are purpose driven and each of the 5 purposes has 2 action steps that serve as guides and evaluators. Every thing we do is in line with the mission and about accomplishing it. It may sound cliche or even too complicated, but it is quite simple really.
Every student in our minstry has the mission statement memorized, every one. We all say it together every time we meet. Our small groups teach through the mission. All of our messages teach through the mission. Each month focuses on one of the purposes. Each month also has an initiative and event designed to engage the students in the mission and to accomplish a goal related to it.
Its working and it is working well. Students are growing in their faith and we are growing in numbers also. We have 2 students services each Sunday, one for HS and one for JH. Our initiative this month is REACH 100…to get 100 students in each service. If any one is interested in this strategy, please contact us.
on September 17th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Sunday I went to church wondering what kind of mood everybody would be in that morning. I was suprised to find out that they were all relaxed and very genuine. They began sharing at prayer requests time and we finished up just in time to pray and go up for service. Youth mtg in the afternoon went much the same way with our small group. I was thankful for the intimacy and trust or the group. God is good. JMcGregor
on September 18th, 2008 at 10:31 am
I have seen seniors stay longer. Not just rush out and leave before the year is over. They want to be connected and they are asking us where to go and who to hook up with in college ministries when they leave town.
Our college group has grown here at home also. They are even bringing in kids they used to go to high school with.
And I had my biggest batch of middle school workers move up from being high schoolers. I have to get them all trained. That is a good problem!
on September 19th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Having been out of youth ministry for almost 3 years now I can say that kids need adults who will not play games with them, who are honest and willing to listen. You get that in youth ministries. I admit I was one of those in the late 90’s and early 2000’s that said youth ministry is failing. Maybe it was but now I see kids that I ministered to and I see success. Kids are serving God in areas other than the church and I think that is awesome.
on September 19th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Over the past few months, our youth ministry has really struggled in numbers and have even had a few weeks where no one showed up. This is a big difference in just a short amount of time where before we didn’t have enough seats in our meeting room, and it has taught us a few things:
1) Pride. I’ve been the volunteer youth pastor for a couple of years now, and I was so proud of the fact that our group was larger than I ever remember it being (And I was born and raised in this church!) Suddenly we had no one showing up, and I think in a way God was showing me that the numbers have nothing to do with what I’m doing, but everything to do with what HE is doing!
2) It has shown us that we needed to be more creative during our time with these kids, which has been so great for us! We’re able to be more spontaneous and have a lot more fun while we’re together, which gives the kids some suspense for the next week!
I know we shouldn’t be focused on numbers, but walking into an empty room can be very discouraging for youth pastors. I think it’s important in those times to remember that God is still in control, and knows right where we are. I’m happy to report that our group is almost up to the size it was before, and are enjoying our company a lot more now! I’m looking forward to what God has planned for us next!
on September 19th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Travis, thanks for sharing your story. And thanks for sticking it out. I’ve been there when no one shows… it’s a low, low moment. Glad you see what God is doing in and through you.
on September 23rd, 2008 at 8:01 am
Well, we aren’t perfect but we aren’t afraid to fail. In our student ministry:
–We have alot of adults involved which mean we have alot of relationships.
–We are very racially diverse
–We accept people for who they are
–We honestly believe Jesus is the answer
–We work hard…i mean really work hard…get dirt in your ears type of work
–We are growing both spiritually (I hear more spiritual stories than ever) and numerically (truth is, I am not sure why, I am only part time and we don’t advertise….wait! oh yes God)
–We have students serving in all areas of the church….I have people ask me on Sundays “Where are all the teenagers?” to which I happily say “Serving in Nursery, Kidmo, Tech Team…etc”
–and finally my favorite thing is that I don’t have to ask them to clean up……they just do it…..nice